Opinion

Editorial

Maybe 2014 Will Be the Year

EditorialPenWSJThe recession of the late ’80s and early ’90s was memorable for many reasons.
For starters, there was the swiftness with which it brought an end to the go-go ’80s and the real-estate boom that changed this region in so many ways. The building stopped, the for-sale signs went up (and stayed up), and the properties eventually went to foreclosure and back to the banks and their OREO (other real estate owned) portfolios to wait for a better day.
As for those banks, some of them disappeared from the landscape entirely, while others were absorbed by larger institutions, with their names lost to history. For those that survived, it was a difficult time of intense scrutiny and tighter regulation that made day-to-day life exponentially more difficult.
There was also the collapse of the minicomputer and the end of the so-called Massachusetts Miracle, and a prolonged residential real-estate slump.
But for most who were in business then, the recession will be remembered for the recovery — if one could call it that — that followed and how painfully slow and meager it was. The common refrains were, alternately, ‘when are things going to get better?’ and ‘are things ever going to get better?’
The current recovery hasn’t been quite that bad, although we would say it comes close. Things are certainly better than they were in 2008 and early 2009, and conditions have improved from just a few years ago — they just haven’t improved as much as business owners would like.
There are many reasons why, but it boils down to two things. First, there’s general uncertainty about what will come next, which is still causing hesitation on the part of many when it comes to expansion, new initiatives, and projects that can absorb space in the region’s many industrial parks. Second, there has been only marginal improvement in the employment picture, especially in many of the larger communities in this region, such as Springfield and Holyoke.
We all know from our history, especially as it pertains to the Great Depression, that when people are not employed, they are not spending money. When they are employed, well, they’re more inclined to spend, which helps companies grow, which prompts investments and expansion, which puts more people to work, which prompts more spending … you know the cycle, and you watched it happen in the mid-’80s and again in the late ’90s.
As 2013 draws to a close, it appears that we’re perhaps, and finally, on the cusp of recovery that might prompt people to bring out the word ‘real.’ The economists we spoke with (see story, page 15) were careful to hedge their bets and offer caveats, especially those related to the dysfunctional government in Washington and a still-shaky global economy.
But there are ample signs, including an improved housing market, a solid November jobs report, and modest payroll growth in the Bay State, to indicate that the economy is in fact getting healthier, and this trend will continue and likely accelerate in the year to come.
Let’s hope the projections are right. This recovery hasn’t been quite as bad as the one in the early ’90s, but it has been long, slow, and for the most part unremarkable.
The year ahead will likely see the start of construction of an $800 million casino in the South End of Springfield, creation of a UMass satellite facility in Springfield, real progress on Union Station, and other initiatives. It would be helpful if all that was accompanied by an economic expansion that touched all sectors.
There’s still a great deal of uncertainty and turmoil to deal with, but it looks like it’s time to change the music to something a little more upbeat.
Let’s hope so.