Page 23 - BusinessWest January 9, 2023

“I think that economic growth is goingtoslowdown,andifwedoget into a recession, it will be a mild one,” he said, adding quickly that his track record with projections is decent but not spectacular. “What continues to amaze me is the strength of the labor market; unemployment is still at or just over 3% both nationally and in this state, and in Western Mass. as well. “The signals just aren’t there for a serious recession — or even for a recession at all.”
But while there is cause for some optimism, there are many concerns as well, especially when it comes to the workforce.
Indeed, in 2022, it became obvious to most in business that the prob- lems seen in 2021 when it came to companies being able to fill positions with qualified help were certainly not temporary in nature. They persisted into 2022, and in some cases were exacerbated.
Now, there is what Geehern, sum- ming up the thoughts of AIM’s mem- bers, called “deep concern” about what has become a workforce crisis in this state.
“‘I can’t find the people I need to make my business grow’ has become part of the vernacular in this state,” he said, noting that, as part of the Busi- ness Confidence Index survey, AIM asks an open-ended question, along the lines of ‘what are you worried about?’
And, increasingly, owners of busi- nesses large and small are worried about workforce.
“I would say that 75% to 80% of the responses to that question every month have to do with talent acquisi- tion, talent retention, and the avail- ability of workers,” he said. “And the concern is that this isn’t the function of an economic cycle; it’s really a deep, structural inflection point for the Massachusetts economy.”
As he explained why, Geehern cited some rather alarming statistics from the Massachusetts Depart-
ment of Economic Research, which projects that the number of jobs in Massachusetts will grow by 22% between now and 2030. Meanwhile, projections from various economists indicate that the state’s workforce will grow 1.5% by 2030.
“If the workforce grows 1.5% and the number of jobs grows by 21% or 22%, as they’re projecting, we have a problem — a big problem,” Geehern said. “This was going on anyway — it’s partially a function of demograph- ics — but it’s been exacerbated by the newfound independence that remote work has given to employees.”
Given this unsettling math, Geer- hern said there are things the state and individual employers must do to make themselves more attractive — not just to businesses, but to workers on all levels.
“Traditionally, we’ve focused on
we also recognize that youhavetocreate
a quality of life that makes people — work- ers — want to live here in Massachusetts. And that means looking at the cost of living.
“Massachusetts ranks number one
in terms of childcare costs, we have the sec- ond-highest housing costs, and the fourth-
worst traffic congestion — I don’t know how they measure that, but they do,” he went on. “What we’re looking at is a significant outmigration of people from
Massachusetts to other areas of the country;aMassachusettsTaxpayers Association report showed that, over the past three decades, there’s been an outmigration of 750,000 people from Massachusetts, and that trend has actually accelerated post-pandemic.”
In some cases, people are leav-
ing the state for lower-cost areas, but keeping their jobs here, a byproduct of the remote-work phenomenon. Moving forward, Geehern said in conclusion, the state has to make itself an attrac- tive place to do business and to live and work — because failure to do so will worsen an already-difficult situa- tion and made it even harder for busi- ness owners to sleep at night. BW
BOB NAKOSTEEN
what creates the environment where businesses can start and grow in Mas- sachusetts, and we’re still committed to that,” he said. “But at the same time,
“Thesignalsjustaren’t there for a serious recession — or even for a recession at all.”
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