Page 7 - BusinessWest March 31, 2021

That’s just one of many factors that will ulti- mately decide the shape of the recovery we’re now in, and how quickly the nation will get back to something approaching normal.
As several of the stories in this issue reveal, the world, or at least this part of it, is returning to a sense of normal. Hotels are booking rooms again, airports are busy (or at least busier), Tan-
people outdoors, and exhibition and conven- tion halls to operate if they can follow gathering limits.
It’s a big step forward, but much will depend on how willing people will be to gather in these places, and how confident they will be to travel. Meanwhile, there’s all that money that people
really want to get out, do things, and buy things,” said Bob Nakosteen, professor of Economics at the Isenberg School of Management at UMass Amherst. “They just want to live a normal life again.”
Mark Melnik, director of Economic and Public Policy Research at the UMass Donahue Institute, concurred, but offered some caveats.
“There’s a psychological element to the econ- omy,” he told BusinessWest. “Just because we hear, ‘get back in the water, everybody,’ it doesn’t necessarily mean that folks will. I think there’s reason to be bullish about the Massachusetts economy in the second half of 2021 and the early part of 2022 because of the pent-up demand. But so many of these issues are going directly to the comfort level that people are going to have psychologically.”
History Lessons
As they have many times over the past year, experts pointed to Worlds War II as the only recent point in history that can in any way com- pare with the ongoing pandemic, and noted that the comparisons hold when it comes to what happened when it was all over.
“During the war, people couldn’t buy a car, and there was a great deal of rationing,” said Nokosteen, adding that, as a result, people were saving. And while there was a lull right after
the war ended, during which some feared the country would actually sink back into the Great Depression that officially ended with the war, people soon started spending — big time.
“Everyone wanted to spend money,” he told BusinessWest. “And they had some money — peo- ple started cashing in the war bonds they bought,
“Just because we hear, ‘get back in the water, everybody,’ it doesn’t necessarily mean that folks will. I think there’s reason to be bullish about the Massachusetts economy in the second half of 2021 and the
MARK MELNIK
comfort level that people are going to have psychologically.”
early part of 2022 because of the pent-up demand. But so many of these issues are going directly to the
glewood and Jacob’s Pillow (see story on page 39) will have seasons in 2021 — albeit different kinds of seasons — and, overall, the state has entered into what Gov. Charlie Baker calls stage 4 of his recovery plan. This final stage will allow indoor and outdoor stadiums to run at 12% capacity, the state’s travel order to be downgraded to an advisory that recommends people entering Mas- sachusetts quarantine for 10 days, public gather- ings to be limited to 100 people indoors and 150
else the country has experienced. Indeed, it has bounced back from recessions, tech bubbles,
a 9/11 downturn, wars, and more. But it hasn’t seen anything quite like this — a pandemic- fueled economic crisis that wiped out millions of jobs, followed by, and accompanied by, federal stimulus on an unprecedented level.
“I’m a little less cautiously optimistic than some, but I am pretty optimistic that people are just to their wit’s end with being isolated; they
saved and the latest round
of stimulus checks now finding their way into people’s bank accounts. Will people spend them, and what will they spend them on?
And what if there is a spending frenzy and economists’ fears of inflation, potentially the runaway variety, become realized?
These are just some of the questions hanging over the job market and this over- all recovery, which will, at the very least, be unlike anything
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BusinessWest FEATURE MARCH 31, 2021 7