Page 21 - BusinessWest May 11, 2026

“Higher education
is entering a
period where
demographic
pressures are
real, but they
are only part of
the story. The
more immediate
challenge is
a shift in how
students and
families evaluate
value. Cost
sensitivity, clarity
of outcomes, and
speed to degree
are all under
greater scrutiny
than they were
even a few years
ago.”
Still, it was a jolt to a college community that has long
prided itself as a successful model of an alternative, largely
self-guided education that has produced numerous high-
profile graduates over the decades, from Ken Burns to Liev
Schreiber to Elliott Smith.
The Anna Maria announcement may have been more of
a jolt, as it is shutting down the Paxton campus this month,
following the end of the spring semester, rather than at the
end of the year.
“For months, the board of trustees, our leadership team,
and the Sisters of Saint Anne walked a distressing road
together, examining every option and hoping at each turn
that something might change,” President Sean Ryan and
the board of trustees wrote, also in a community letter. “The
decision reflects years of financial pressure that we were
ultimately unable to overcome, and the honest recognition
that continuing would not be responsible to the students, faculty,
and staff who depend on us. We tried to find a way. We are grateful
to everyone who tried alongside us. And we are deeply, genuinely
sorry we found no viable path forward.”
The closures are sounding alarm bells because a looming
‘demographic cliff’ already has colleges and universities nation-
wide concerned. According to a recent study from the Federal
Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, about 60 of the nation’s roughly
4,000 colleges are closing, on average, each year — a number that
could double in any given year if the bottom falls out of enrollment,
according to a recent analysis in the Atlantic by Jeffrey Selingo.
“If the harm were only to the institutions forced to close
because they’re running out of customers, that would be unfortu-
nate, but not tragic. But the causality runs in the other direction
too, as students who otherwise would have gone to college find
themselves with no viable option in the place where they live,”
Selingo wrote.
He explained that American higher education has long con-
sisted of two markets: one where high-achieving, typically affluent
students compete for seats at national universities, and one where
mostly middle- and lower-income students study closer to home.
Michael Dodge says colleges that want to survive and thrive
must focus on matching their offerings to workforce needs.
Staff Photo
“Members of the first group will be fine even as college closures
accelerate. The second group will suffer. After many decades of
democratization, higher education could once again become a
luxury good.”
However, Dodge noted that the demographic trends are just one
element among numerous looming issues for colleges.
“Higher education is entering a period where demographic
pressures are real, but they are only part of the story. The more
immediate challenge is a shift in how students and families
evaluate value. Cost sensitivity, clarity of outcomes, and speed to
degree are all under greater scrutiny than they were even a few
years ago,” he explained.
“At the same time, traditional pipelines are evolving. High
school populations are changing, adult learners are expecting
more flexibility, and employers are placing greater emphasis on
skills and credentials that align directly with workforce needs,” he
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