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Hire Concerns

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Features Special Coverage Workforce Development

Numerous Factors Are Complicating the Region’s Job Market

Whatever else can be said for the job market — both nationally and in Western Mass. — job seekers have lost some leverage. Specifically, job openings aren’t as plentiful (in most sectors, anyway) than they were a year or two ago, meaning it’s tougher to hold out for a better offer, and not as easy to move around.

“What we’re seeing is a retraction of people moving jobs right now. Employees are staying put,” said Allison Ebner, president of the Employers Assoc. of the NorthEast. “We’re seeing that for a variety of reasons today; the economy is certainly one reason why employees are staying with the devil they know instead of jumping ship for a different job.”

Specifically, she noted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported earlier this month that, for the first time since 2023, the cost of living has outpaced wage growth in the U.S.

“Basically, the inflation rate has outpaced the cost-of-living adjustment, that 3.5% average that many people probably got at the beginning of the year. It’s not even covering the cost-of-living increase today, between the rising gas prices and the rising food prices.”

At the same time, Ebner said, wages are leveling off after jumping up for a while post-COVID. “The only outlier we’re seeing is some variable pay for AI skills in general.”

Kevin Lynn, executive director of the MassHire Springfield Career Center, said the local labor market has seen a broad contraction in job opportunities, and cited a number of factors that have been problematic.

“What we’re seeing is a retraction of people moving jobs right now. Employees are staying put. We’re seeing that for a variety of reasons today; the economy is certainly one reason why employees are staying with the devil they know instead of jumping ship for a different job.”

“We have a benefits cliff here affecting both hiring and retention,” he told BusinessWest. “We have a federal immigration policy that is contracting our labor market. We have population decline locally and outmigration. We have a childcare crisis that is tamping down the available labor market. We certainly have developing AI/automation anxiety out there. We have federal funding uncertainty. We have a local criminal justice issue, getting ex-offenders re-employed. And we have this totally egregious Iran war which is causing our economy to slow.

“Judging from the most recent [BLS] Producer Price Index, we’re running into a really fun June, if not July, with a rise in prices,” Lynn added. “We’ve got all that around us, which gives us a picture of what I would term a struggling regional economy.”

In fact, he said, Hampden County has one of the weakest labor markets in the state, with a relatively high unemployment rate continuing to climb, and average weekly wage rates below the national average.

All this has contributed to a slowdown in employee movement, where both workers and companies are loath to make moves.

“Companies are making slower hiring decisions, when they have hiring decisions to make, and they’re seeing less turnover,” Ebner said. “And from what we’re hearing, the employers that have employee turnover, it’s not because workers are leaving to go to different jobs; the turnover is because of employees’ poor performance, attendance issues, or not meeting the employer’s standards.”

The slowdown in hiring is even manifesting itself in the most recent MassHire job fair at the Basketball Hall of Fame on May 18. When she spoke with BusinessWest the week before the fair, Ebner — who is also president of the MassHire Springfield board of directors — said vendor registration was running at about 60% the usual pace.

“They may pick up a few more, but that’s certainly a telltale sign locally that employees aren’t hiring,” she added. “There are still close to 30 coming, but usually it’s in the 45 to 50 range of employers coming to market their companies.”

Unhealthy Outlook

Lynn noted that the region is struggling with a bifurcation of wages — and a lot of posting activity in positions that are high-churn, low-wage, and not necessarily a living wage. And it’s happening most in healthcare.

Allison Ebner says employee engagement — even at the managerial level — is a rising problem for employers.

“Locally, healthcare is our dominant sector in terms of employment, and it’s contracting,” he said, pointing to struggles at local hospitals to employ frontline staffers, even before the recent announcement of Mercy Medical Center merging into Baystate Health later this year.

“What is that going to look like? What does that mean for employment?” he asked. “Crucially, a lot of healthcare workers — home health aides, CNAs, those lower kinds of lower-paying positions within the healthcare system, have an issue with a living wage. Can people survive on those wages?

“It’s really kind of an existential question for healthcare, where so much of what they do depends on Medicare and Medicaid funding to pay the bills, and they’re not doing a great job paying as it is,” he went on. “So, are they in a position to increase wages? I’m guessing not, so there’s a tension going on: people tend to think of where the jobs are, who’s hiring, what the jobs are — but increasingly, people are taking the next step and asking, ‘does this job pay a living wage?’”

It’s a question the healthcare industry must deal with sooner than later, said Ebner, who pointed to data from Lightcast, a global leader in labor market intelligence and workforce analytics, that notes that healthcare openings nationally currently outnumber unemployed job seekers by a five to one margin, and two-thirds of all job growth over the past year is in healthcare and social assistance.

“There was a predicted gain of 60,000 jobs in April, and it came in closer to 105,000, but it’s being skewed by a couple of industries; it’s not a true picture of all industries,” she said, and at the top of the list is healthcare. In fact, in 49 of 50 U.S. states, nursing is currently the top open job category. And that trend of healthcare demand outpacing staffing bodes poorly not just for the economy, but in broader ways.

“Healthcare is going to be a problem for us as people are living longer and Baby Boomers are retiring. They’ve done the math, and there’s simply not enough people to fill those healthcare jobs,” Ebner noted. “There’s a huge opportunity in home health and PCAs; they don’t have enough people to fill those positions. But it’s not a high-paying job.

“There’s a lot of talk right now about how about how the trades are working to draw students from high schools and colleges into electrical, HVAC, plumbing,” she added. “Those are considered AI-proof, and they’re high-income-earning. You could start as an apprentice and make a great wage very quickly. You can’t say that about PCAs.”

Data researcher Hannah Grieser, writing for Lightcast, cited a 2026 survey finding that 73% of healthcare executives say staffing shortages negatively affect their ability to provide high-quality care, pointing to several specific roles as acutely difficult to fill: among clinical roles, 98% of healthcare executives named physician specialists, and 86% primary care physicians. And among allied health roles, a majority of executives said radiology techs and ultrasound techs are tough to find.

“But across the healthcare workforce,” Grieser noted, “labor shortages are an ongoing challenge that’s expected to intensify.”

Meanwhile, Ebner continued, “COVID burnt out a lot of the healthcare workers. A lot of people opted out of that profession. They don’t have the same appeal post-COVID. So, healthcare is going to be in trouble and, with the level of urgency we’re at, needs immediate attention at the state and federal levels for sure.”

“Crucially, a lot of healthcare workers — home health aides, CNAs, those lower kinds of lower-paying positions within the healthcare system, have an issue with a living wage. Can people survive on those wages?”

Kevin Lynn says the main problem for companies isn’t finding people to hire, but finding the right people.

MassHire’s mission is to connect employers with skilled, motivated employees, Lynn said, but, increasingly, those workers aren’t finding the wage levels they need.

“Employers are in a push-and-pull position right now, and it’s been heightened with inflation and rising rents and mortgages,” he explained. “The cost of living in general has been escalating. People are saying, ‘I can’t take a job if I can’t find a home,’ or ‘I can’t take a job if I don’t make enough money to stay in my home.’ There’s more of that going on than ever now.”

That said, he noted, certain positions in healthcare — RNs, LPNs, and allied professionals come to mind — can find decent wages, and other sectors are similarly tiered when it comes to who’s making what.

“Also, the nonprofit sector continues to hire — again, it depends on the position, but they often do pay decent wages and have outstanding benefit packages to make up the difference. So that’s good. But on the flip side, human services, nonprofits, and healthcare are being hit by reductions in federal spending.”

Other sectors are relatively stable as well, including retail, logistics, and warehousing, but Lynn is concerned that the overall regional wage picture is outpacing what’s being seen locally.

“Read the national economic news, and you see economic numbers that are not great, but don’t look too bad, either. You get the sense locally we’re in a different ballgame.”

The Right Stuff

Lynn reiterated that matching employers with job seekers is much easier than finding the right workers, in terms of both skills and engagement. “We talk to different companies who are hiring, but struggling to hire at the same time because they don’t just want a body, but the right person.”

Ebner agreed. “Employers are definitely discouraged about the quality of the candidates they have. They’re not seeing the caliber of candidates that they’ve seen in the past from a customer service standpoint, from an innovation standpoint; they’re still struggling with employee engagement.”

Gallup’s State of the Global Workplace study recently reported a 21% employee engagement rate, she noted. “That means 21% of employees are fully engaged with their jobs. That’s a problem. An even bigger issue was manager engagement, which dropped from 31% to 22% over the last two years.

“These are the people that teach and educate and coach your employees,” Ebner went on. “This is something we talk to our members about regularly — manager development, and to be very careful about who gets to be a leader in your organization. Just because somebody did a great job working on the line as a project manager, or in an individual capacity, doesn’t mean they’re going to be a great leader. You’ve got to have someone with qualifications who shares your mindset, and then take those high-performing individuals and try them out in those roles to see if they’ll be a good leader.”

Meanwhile, among all the negative factors impacting the regional job market, Lynn pointed to immigration enforcement as a thorny one, though fewer people are talking about it right now.

“It’s definitely impacting healthcare, especially looking at long-term care; a lot of immigrants work in that field, and now that pool has started to dry up. When you see these ICE pickups, the optics don’t make people feel comfortable going out to find work.

“It’s almost like we put everything into a blender, and we’re not coming out with a great drink,” he added, referring specifically to decisions being made in Washington, D.C. “I’m worried about a potential recession. I lived through that in 2008; I don’t want that to happen. It’s tough to hire right now because there’s so much craziness going on.” ◆

These Are Just a Couple Descriptors for an Evolving Job Market

By
Special Coverage Workforce Development

‘Weird’ and ‘Confusing’

 

“Confusing.”

That’s the one word that Kevin Lynn, executive director of MassHire Springfield Career Center, chose when asked to describe the current jobs market and put into perspective what he’s seeing and hearing.

Elaborating, he referenced the center’s job fair at the Basketball Hall of Fame on Oct. 6, the latest of dozens of such events in recent years. In the weeks leading up the fair, organizers were worried about having a critical mass of companies seeking applicants — a nod to a slowing in overall hiring across the 413. But then, over the final few days of registration, there was a rush to sign up.

“We had 64 businesses — we literally did not have room for another company — and that was very surprising to us,” Lynn said.

Meanwhile, on the job seekers side of the equation, organizers were expecting what they’d seen in recent fairs — anywhere between 200 and 350 people — or maybe a few more. Instead, 617 turned out.

“That’s both good and concerning — that’s the busiest job expo we’ve had since before COVID,” he noted, adding that, while the numbers generate confusion on some levels, on another level, they make sense, because some sectors are hiring, but also still struggling to find talent with the requisite skills. Meanwhile, a variety of factors, from tariffs to turmoil in Washington, are leaving many people with jobs feeling less certain about the security of those jobs, and this helps explain the fair’s large turnout.

Allison Ebner

Allison Ebner

“They’re feeling like there’s enough uncertainty around … they’re hearing about layoffs with the larger companies and AI taking jobs — and there’s so much buzz about all that, the job market seems unstable.”

“I’ve talked to people who say they’re in businesses that are seeing a slowdown, and people are getting a little concerned,” said Lynn, listing manufacturing in that category, and adding that, overall, the pendulum has swung, and what was a buyers’ (job seekers’) market maybe as late as nine months ago has now shifted to employers, with an abundance of candidates for many positions and, overall, fewer job opportunities.

Allison Ebner, president of the Employers Assoc. of the NorthEast, agreed, but noted that the higher levels of uncertainty and anxiety — in Washington, the job market, and everywhere else — are key contributors to the latest trend (and buzz term) in employment circles: ‘job hugging.’

“Folks are staying put; they’re giving their job a hug,” she explained. “They’re feeling like there’s enough uncertainty around … they’re hearing about layoffs with the larger companies and AI taking jobs — and there’s so much buzz about all that, the job market seems unstable.

“People are feeling a sense of volatility and continuous change, and when you feel like that, you look for some personal anchors, and for a lot of people, their job is their personal anchor,” she went on, adding that this is a fairly recent phenomenon dating back to last spring or early summer. “Everything in the world is changing, and they want to keep something consistent, and maybe it’s their job.”

But just because people are staying put in many cases that doesn’t mean they’re necessarily happy or that they aren’t looking, Ebner went on, adding that wages are stagnant after a period of upward movement in the years after COVID, and, in some cases, companies — especially smaller ones — are making do with fewer or the same number of employees, which often adds up to more work.

Overall, she had her own word for the current job market — ‘weird’ — meaning that there are many forces pushing and pulling at people and businesses (from tariffs to general uncertainty to AI) that are creating a confusing landscape.

nicole Polite

Nicole Polite

“Companies are running a little bit leaner, so they may not have the capacity to train like they used to, so they need someone who already has the skill base to come in and hit the ground running a little faster than before.”

As for AI, it is impacting everything from job availability in some sectors — everything from hospitality to computer technology — to candidates being overlooked because they don’t have those skills.

“It’s definitely a skill set that they want to stay ahead of,” said Nicole Polite, CEO and founder of the East Longmeadow-based MH Group, adding that this is part of a larger trend she’s seeing toward skill-based hiring rather than focusing on whether someone has a requisite degree.

“The degree requirement isn’t as strong as it once was, and employers are really focusing on the skill base,” she told BusinessWest. “And the reasoning for that, in many cases, is the ability to train. Companies are running a little bit leaner, so they may not have the capacity to train like they used to, so they need someone who already has the skill base to come in and hit the ground running a little faster than before.”

 

Hire Powers

Lynn told BusinessWest that the job fair, as it played out, presented an accurate snapshot of what’s happening in the employment market — at least when it comes to the companies turning out to recruit and the makeup of that crowd of 617 people.

With the former, there were businesses across the spectrum, he said, but certain sectors were better-represented, including healthcare (although much of it is on the lower end, with CNAs and home health aides), area schools, and the broad realm of government, where there are jobs — with water and sewer operations and public works departments, among other realms — but fewer takers, especially among the younger generations.

“They don’t see any future in it,” he said, adding that many area cities and towns are struggling to fill such jobs.

As for the job seekers, or those simply exploring options, there was a good cross-section, said Lynn, noting that there were professionals, “people in suits — which we haven’t seen a lot of lately,” as well as a mix of young people, some mid-career types, and “significant amounts of gray hair.”

Kevin Lynn

Kevin Lynn

“Part of the problem is that the people doing the hiring are much younger than the people looking for work, and they don’t have a clear understanding of the skill sets that the older worker brings.”

This diversity points to the across-the-board nature of a softening job market and the restlessness of those with jobs, but also the plight of older workers.

“There’s a lot of ageism that people have to deal with,” he explained. “And part of the problem is that the people doing the hiring are much younger than the people looking for work, and they don’t have a clear understanding of the skill sets that the older worker brings.

“One of the best things about older workers is they show up every day, and they’re very task-oriented — you can plug them in, and they’ll just go,” he went on, adding that this attribute is often overlooked amid perceptions that older workers struggle with technology. “There are all these assumptions being made that often don’t let the older worker get past the first cut, the résumé screening.”

As for those at the other end of the spectrum — recent college graduates and those wrapping up degrees — the overall job market remains solid, but some areas have slowed, said Cheryl Brooks, associate provost, Career and Professional Development at UMass Amherst, who put jobs in technology, life sciences, and, understandably, the federal government at the top of that list.

Tiffany Appleton, associate director of Employer Relations for the university’s Office of Career Development & Professional Connections, agreed, noting that jobs with the federal government are fewer in number than many other sectors, but they cross many degree programs at the school.

“It’s a bigger number that many people would think,” she told BusinessWest. “I know there were a number of people from the class of 2025 who had offers they had accepted for government jobs early in the spring of 2025, and by the time they graduated, those offers had been rescinded. They had to restart their job search, and many of them have been successful with finding jobs elsewhere.”

Brooks said it will be early next year before she has hard data on how the class of 2025 has fared, but anecdotally, she believes it has fared well, with those notable exceptions, and also with lingering questions about whether some international students will be able to obtain OPT (optional practical training, a temporary work authorization for F-1 student visa holders in the U.S. directly related to their field of study) or work visas.

As for this fall and the class of 2026 and beyond, she said turnout among employers at job fairs staged at the school, such as those for engineering, life sciences, and building and construction technology, is down slightly (8% to 10%, by her estimate) from previous years, but companies are turning out in good numbers, looking for both employees and interns.

Appleton concurred. “The vast majority of employers I’m talking to are still moving forward with their recruitment plans,” she noted. “They’re actively coming to campus, posting jobs, interviewing and extending offers to start after graduation.

“There’s only been a little bit of a decline, and if there’s a decline, it’s more like, instead of hiring 20 students into this entry-level job, they’ll hire 15 — and I haven’t seen much of that.”

 

The AI Factor

Overall, job seekers across the board are seeing fewer opportunities, at least in some sectors, as companies cope with uncertainty, tariffs and threats of tariffs, and other forces by being “more careful” in their hiring, Ebner said.

This phrase applies to both the numbers of people being hired and the skills they bring to the table, noted Polite, adding that, overall, companies are taking their time — because they have it, whereas they were far more under the gun a few years ago — and sharply focused on getting it right.

“They’re fine-tuning what they’re looking for,” she went on. “And since demand has changed in terms of the job seeker pool, they’re able to have more leverage and recruit in a different manner than they did post-pandemic.

“We saw post-pandemic that employers had positions they needed to fill immediately,” Polite continued. “This didn’t allow them the capacity to do some of the more intensive skill-set requirements that they’re doing now. So it’s definitely a different market in terms of what they’re looking for — and holding the line for.”

This is one of many forces contributing to job hugging, said Ebner, adding that this trend is both good and bad for employers.

“Even though people may not be jumping ship as quickly as they had been over the past few years, people are still unhappy where they are,” she noted. “They are looking, they’re out there, they’re seeing what’s out there, so it doesn’t necessarily mean that people are staying put and they’re more productive.

“It means they’re staying put, their job search is probably quieter, but they might be looking,” she went on. “Depending on their industry and whether they feel they might have more exposure to a layoff or job reduction — depending on whether they’re being impacted by tariffs or AI — they might be a little more motivated to search.”

As for AI, it is one of the more powerful forces impacting the job market and the plight of job seekers. In the broad realm of computer technology, for example, some jobs are being lost to AI, but others are being, created, Brooks said.

“It’s like a net-zero in terms of overall jobs, because it’s changing a bit,” she explained. “Some of the jobs are going away, but others are being created. It’s hard to parse out exactly what the numbers are, but we’re definitely seeing a decline this year, and who knows if that will level off this year.”

Ebner agreed. “Software development … that was the hottest gig in town 10 years ago, 15 years ago,” she said. “And now, AI is doing a lot of that work.”

Meanwhile, AI is having a growing impact on other sectors, including hospitality.

“Go visit the McDonald’s at Bradley Airport — there are no people,” Ebner said. “There are people making your food, but there are no people at the counter; it’s all kiosks. These are the pockets where we’re seeing technology replace people.

“But most industries are looking at how they can bring AI in, not to replace the people, but to use it to enhance the work that humans are doing,” she went on, adding that AI skills are increasingly becoming a determining factor is whether a candidate can land a specific job.

“The phrase you hear now is, ‘AI won’t replace all the people, but it will replace people who don’t have AI skills,’” Ebner explained, adding that this new reality crosses the broad employment spectrum.

Both Lynn and Ebner said their agencies offer training in AI and that, overall, there are an abundance of opportunities to gain these skills, and job seekers need to take full advantage of them.

Polite agreed. “I often talk to people during the interview process and ask them what training they’ve had in terms of AI and make sure they stay in front of it,” she noted, “because AI is here for the long haul, so we have to adjust to it.”