Briefcase

Growth Projections Remain Sluggish
WASHINGTON — The National Assoc. for Business Economics (NABE) recently noted that survey panelists made only modest revisions to their forecasts for the November report compared with their October projections for economic growth, according to NABE President Richard Wobbekind, associate dean of the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado. Wobbekind noted that projections for real GDP growth remain sub-par through the first quarter of 2011, but accelerate gradually through the forecast period. For next year as a whole, GDP growth is expected to be moderate. Factors restraining growth going forward include ongoing balance-sheet restructuring by consumers and businesses, and a diminished contribution to GDP growth from inventory restocking and government stimulus. Confidence in the expansion’s durability is intact, but panelists remain concerned about high levels of federal debt, a continuing high level of unemployment, increased business regulation, and rising commodity prices. To a large extent, the latest NABE forecast reflects the view that the economy will struggle against financial headwinds; 40% of survey respondents — compared to 37% in October — characterize the expansion as “sub-par with severe wealth losses and onerous debt burdens inhibiting spending and lending.” In contrast, 28% of respondents feel that “the economy will overcome its headwinds, and behave more in line with a traditional business cycle expansion: real output will grow at a rate above potential, and households and businesses will boost discretionary spending.” The likelihood of either stagflation or the economy slipping back into recession is viewed as relatively low. Also, consumer spending is expected to remain modest throughout the forecast horizon due to weak job gains, persistently high unemployment, and negligible growth in household net worth. This year’s holiday retail sales are still expected to be weak, rising only 2.5% from those of last year. Roughly half of the panelists expect the personal saving rate to fall over the forecast period, while the other half of the panel is divided as to whether it will rise further or stay at roughly the same rate. Additionally, labor market conditions are expected to improve slowly. Monthly payroll gains are forecast to average less than 150,000 until the latter half of 2011, at which time gains will improve at a range of roughly 150,000-170,000. Joblessness will remain high, with the unemployment rate persisting at over 9.5% or higher through the first quarter of 2011 before easing — but only slightly — to 9.2% by year-end 2011. This will mark the weakest post-recession job recovery on record. Panelists estimate the current long-run or natural rate of unemployment at 5.8%, up by one-half-percentage point since 2007.

Colonial Theatre, Berkshire Theatre Festival Team Up
PITTSFIELD and STOCKBRIDGE — The boards of trustees for the Colonial Theatre in Pittsfield and Berkshire Theatre Festival (BTF) in Stockbridge recently announced a partnership that will combine resources to strengthen the cultural vitality in the Berkshires. The partnership will stage performances and festivals interchangeably at the two historic theaters and BTF’s Unicorn Theatre. The Colonial and BTF will retain their boards of trustees and create a new board to oversee all operations. Staff activities of both organizations will also be integrated to produce efficiencies and reduce costs.

Calendar Sales Support Schools
AMHERST — The 2011 edition of the educational calendar When I Grow Up I Want To Be is now available at several local venues, according to Carroll G. Lamb, executive director of the Institute of Black Invention & Technology Inc. The calendar features color photographs of preschool-age children expressing their desire to be like significant black achievers in science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and other fields. Biographies of these achievers are included in the calendar. Donations from businesses and individuals and calendar sales enable the gift of calendars to elementary school classrooms in Springfield, Amherst, and Hadley. Calendars are available at Olive Tree Books-N-Voices, 97 Hancock St., Springfield; Helen’s Hairum Salon in Tower Square, Springfield; A.J. Hastings, 45 South Pleasant St., Amherst; and Food for Thought, 100 North Pleasant St., Amherst. For more information, visit www.tibit.biz.

Bright Nights Featured
on MSN
SPRINGFIELD — Bright Nights at Forest Park is featured at msn.com in an article titled “Everything is Illuminated.” The holiday-lighting display is first on the list of 10 lighting displays in the U.S. and Canada. The article notes that Bright Nights “adds a little color to the wintry staging with Dinner with Dickens, Supper with Santa, carriage rides, and an engine tour from Hartford to Springfield.” Bright Nights runs nightly from Dec. 8 through Jan. 2, starting at 5 p.m. Bright Nights is sponsored by the Spirit of Springfield with the Springfield Department of Parks, Buildings and Recreation Management. For more information, call (413) 733-3800 or visit www.brightnights.org.