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The Local Business Community Offers Perspectives on 2026

By BusinessWest Staff January 5, 2026

Economic Outlook Special Coverage

Surveying the Landscape

Beyond the big-picture context provided by regional business leaders in the lead story on page 4, how do individual business and nonprofit leaders in Western Mass. see their own enterprises faring in 2026? On the following pages, 17 of them share their answers to that question — and what they see as the key trends, challenges, and opportunities arising in the coming year.

Ray Berry, Owner, White Lion Brewing

As a brewery, we operate at the intersection of hospitality and manufacturing. According to our national trade association, the craft beer industry is expected to experience its third consecutive year of volume decline, and the second year in which brewery closures outpace new openings.

Despite these industry headwinds, White Lion remains optimistic. While overall production is sideways, we are seeing meaningful growth and expanded opportunity across other areas of our operation.

Strategic changes implemented in 2025 are positioning the business for greater strength in 2026. These include our transition to an all-alcohol bar, which increased foot traffic; a renewed focus on community engagement that drove a significant rise in on-site events; activation of underutilized space within Tower Square to reach new audiences; continued growth in outdoor programming to strengthen partnerships; and, looking ahead to 2026, a planned enhancement of our food menu to better reflect and complement the diverse experiences we offer.

Megan Burke, President and CEO, Community Foundation of Western Massachusetts

While rising prices, increased demand for services, and reductions in federal resources strained the Western Mass. nonprofit community in 2025, our nonprofit partners demonstrated resilience. More than 50% of the nonprofits serving our community reported funding losses, forcing them to do more with less.

Yet, this year revealed the strength of our communities. We saw our neighbors step up with incredible generosity of both time and money, deepening their commitment and finding creative ways to respond.

As the Community Foundation plans for the year ahead, our 35th year of impact, we are listening to residents as we hone our vision to advance equity and opportunity for all. We feel honored by the call to serve as a connector, supporting those who seek to give and the community helpers who are best placed to respond to changing needs. While we anticipate many new challenges in 2026, we are committed to standing with our communities, responding with urgency and trust, and meeting this moment together.

Sandra Doran, President, Bay Path University

The defining challenges in higher education today are affordability, access, and relevance. At Bay Path University, we are steadfast in delivering an affordable, high-quality education that leads to a career.

For more than 125 years, Bay Path has prepared learners for careers. We meet regularly with employers and business leaders because understanding workforce needs matters. Today, one message is clear: graduates must be AI literate.

That is why we are thoughtfully investing in augmented artificial intelligence as both a teaching tool and an educational resource — making learners career-ready while also improving efficiency and controlling costs. This approach delivers what students and employers expect in an education that must be affordable, relevant, and aligned with opportunity.

Thomas Dowling, CPA, Partner-in-Charge, Whittlesey

Looking ahead, I predict that talent shortages will continue to be a challenge for many industries. As a result, organizations will reconsider their approach to attracting, developing, and retaining their people. Rather than sticking to traditional hiring models, I anticipate that we’ll see an increased focus on investing in existing teams, whether that involves upskilling or adopting a more deliberate, longer-term approach to workforce planning.

Artificial intelligence will continue to become part of everyday operations, enabling businesses to work more efficiently and make better-informed decisions. With broader adoption comes increased responsibility, particularly in terms of governance, ethical use, and cybersecurity.

The organizations that find the right balance between new technology and human judgment will be better-positioned to strengthen their teams, adapt to change, and remain resilient.

Curtis Edgin, President, Caolo & Bieniek Architects

As Caolo & Bieniek looks forward to 2026 and beyond, the only thing we know for certain is there will continue to be change in the architecture and construction industry.

As codes and standards continue to evolve and material technologies improve, we’ve learned that these changes help us raise the bar in the environments we create for our clients and the communities we’re part of.

Meeting client needs, from enhanced building performance to concerns of increasing construction costs, requires us to be educated in the possibilities and apply that knowledge in how we serve our clients’ best interests.

Improved delivery technology provides our team with opportunities, but is only part of the answer. There still needs to be an experienced understanding of how buildings go together, as well as an awareness of conditions those in the field encounter.

We’re optimistic we will meet the challenges, as we have done for more than 60 years.

Jeffrey Fialky, Managing Shareholder, Bacon Wilson, P.C.

Overall, 2025 was a great year for business from our vantage point. We witnessed quite a bit of business succession as well as real estate activity, particularly in the commercial space. Favorable downward movement in interest rates was certainly a contributing factor, a catalytic trend that will inevitably continue into 2026 with at least one more interest rate cut in the forecast.

The likely theme this year, and for years to follow, is artificial intelligence. I read a recent article that stated that AI can currently replace 11% of the workforce. With a technological leap that outpaces the Industrial Revolution and internet boom by exponential proportions, the business community will continue to have to stay nimble as the future unfolds.

I do believe, however, that in the Pioneer Valley, while by no means immune or insulated from the impact of evolving technology, is nonetheless very well-positioned. Unlike communities in other parts of the state or country that have employment tied closely to the technology sectors, the Western Mass. economy is, to a large extent, based upon healthcare, manufacturing, and trades, industries that will still require the human touch.

I recently called a doctor’s office to schedule an appointment, and the appointment was scheduled by an AI assistant; I was surprised by the efficiency. So while you can see that certain jobs may be adversely affected by AI, potential realized savings in that regard opens up the opportunity for small businesses to continue to invest in growth of their core operations, which in turn will lead to expansion and hiring.

John Gannon, Partner, Skoler, Abbott & Presser, P.C.

The labor and employment law landscape for businesses is evolving in 2026. This year, employers will be navigating Massachusetts’ new pay transparency requirements while dealing with growing oversight of AI tools in hiring and workplace practices.

Massachusetts’ new pay transparency law requires many employers to post salary ranges in all job postings. This includes “any advertisement or job posting intended to recruit job applicants for a particular and specific employment position,” regardless of whether the employer recruits directly or utilizes a third party for such purposes.

Federally, employers are looking at potential new regulatory guidance on the use of AI-driven hiring tools, such as the No Robot Bosses Act, which is designed to establish safeguards against employment discrimination that may arise from AI algorithms. The legislation is also meant to ensure that human judgment remains a critical component in employment decisions.

These changes present new, unique compliance challenges for employers.

Lynn Gray-Yucka, General Manager, Holyoke Mall

Holyoke Mall’s strength lies in creatively curating the right tenant mix to drive revenue, enhance customer experience, strengthen market relevance, and enhance the overall asset value. We are optimized for sustained financial growth well into the future as we embark upon a substantial reinvestment into the infrastructure. This three-phase, multi-year enhancement project includes new paving, curbing, and landscaping; fresh paint on the exterior building, new signage packages, and interior upgrades that have already started and continue into 2026.

As the shopping center industry continues to be ever-changing, Holyoke Mall is a shining example as the only high-performing, super-regional property within our trade area. Twenty years ago, our center had a tenant mix that included 90% to 95% traditional retail. Today, that number is closer to 70% to 75%.

As business continues to evolve, Holyoke Mall will be ready for what comes next as the dominant shopping center in Western Mass., offering more than just traditional retail, but also best-in-class dining and entertainment concepts.

Roseann Martoccia, Executive Director, Access Care Partners

At Access Care Partners, we serve older adults and people with disabilities of any age, as well as providing support to families and caregivers. As we look at 2026, we know Massachusetts has a rapidly growing aging demographic; already, 27% of the Commonwealth’s current population are age 60 or older. This trend will continue for the next 10 to 15 years and bring with it increasing care needs, including dementia, chronic medical conditions, and behavioral health issues.

To meet these needs, funding for home and community-based services is more critical than ever. Supporting people in their homes is not only a cost-effective option; it also enables caregivers to remain in the workforce and provide economically for their families while contributing to the overall stability of the workforce in Massachusetts.

Our industry experienced 2025 as a year of uncertainty and funding challenges due to changes at the federal level. The impact on Massachusetts, our healthcare system, and care at home will continue in 2026 and beyond. We will approach the year with continued commitment to serving our communities’ needs by meeting these challenges and strengthening our advocacy.

Amy McMahan, Founder, Mesa Verde and NOM Meals

I think Western Mass. restaurants are going to continue to experience a thinning of the herd due to a shrinking skilled laborforce, rising food costs, and decreased consumer spending. But necessity is the mother of innovation, and these restaurants are modeling winning strategies:

• Equity as a business strategy: By paying a universal $25 per hour wage, Dreamhouse in Turners Falls has eliminated the front/back of the house pay differential, enabling higher wages in the kitchen. This translates into consistently high food quality and dining experience.

• Win-Win alternate revenue streams: Hillside Pizza in South Deerfield and Bernardston has long partnered with local nonprofits, providing fundraising mechanisms that benefit the community and provide a steady, separate income stream for their restaurants.

• Partnership and pop-ups: Ginger Love Café, a popular food truck, takes over Jake’s Northampton, a beloved breakfast spot, in the evening. Reduced rent and start-up costs mean a higher chance of survival for both parties.

• Workforce retention as a separator: The expansion of Northampton’s La Veracruzana into Amherst proves the endurance of legacy restaurants that have tenured, nimble, and skilled staff who execute affordable, high-quality food.

Megan Moynihan, CEO, United Way of Pioneer Valley

For more than 100 years, United Way of Pioneer Valley has stood alongside our neighbors in Hampden County, Granby, and South Hadley. Today, that commitment matters more than ever. We face challenges that demand collaboration, local knowledge, and unwavering dedication.

The need is real. In 2025, food insecurity surged by 447%, affecting 49,000 residents. Call2Talk answered more than 2,000 crisis calls, while Thrive guided 700 individuals toward financial stability. Yet, amid these challenges, hope shines through. Youth Leaders in Action is shaping tomorrow’s community builders. VolunteerConnect links thousands of volunteers with more than 100 organizations. And Stuff the Bus ensures students start school ready to learn.

We’re also investing in the nonprofit sector itself — because strong organizations create strong communities. Through programs like Community Leadership Connect, OnBoard, and Leaders Lounge, we equip local leaders to navigate unprecedented pressures.

Together, we’re building the next century of impact for the Pioneer Valley. Join us in making a difference.

Evan Plotkin, President, NAI Plotkin

Springfield’s commercial real estate market stands at an inflection point. As interest rates ease, capital is slowly returning to secondary markets that offer value investors can no longer find in gateway cities.

Downtown Springfield tells a compelling story. The more than $10 million dollar transformation of the former CityStage theater into the Hope Theater is creating a state-of-the-art cultural attraction and educational center. At 1350 Main St., the top two floors now house a cutting-edge STEM high school focused on science, engineering, technology, and mathematics, a model that points toward the future of office space. Perhaps more institutions of higher learning will follow this lead, repurposing traditional office buildings as we’ve done at One Financial Plaza.

The anticipated commuter rail connection to Boston could prove transformative, spurring development around the station neighborhood well before trains begin running. Decisions about the future courthouse location will significantly shape downtown’s trajectory. Across from MGM, residential and curated retail development is already underway — early stages of what promises to activate that critical corridor.

The trend toward downtown residential conversion is creating new vitality. More housing means more foot traffic, more retail demand, and a more vibrant urban core.

For patient investors, Springfield offers something increasingly rare — genuine upside in a market others have overlooked.

Nicole Polite, CEO, the MH Group

In 2026, healthcare staffing will continue to remain in high demand due to an aging population, increasing medical and behavioral health needs, high turnover and burnout, and ongoing labor shortages across the field. Hospitals, long-term care facilities, behavioral health programs, home care agencies, and recovery centers will continue to rely on staffing agencies to fill gaps caused by retirements, burnout, and turnover.

Staffing models such as per diem, contract, and travel will remain in high demand, placing greater emphasis on cost control and schedule optimization. Demand will remain strongest for registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, behavioral health clinicians, direct care workers, and home health aides.

There will be a stronger focus on regulatory and compliance requirements, particularly credential verification, background checks, worker classification, and pay transparency — along with faster onboarding while maintaining compliance.

Technology will assist in supporting compliance; however, healthcare is a highly regulated, human-centered industry. Patient care requires licensed professionals, supervision, ethical decision making, and relationship-based trust — areas where AI cannot operate independently.

Hannah Rechtschaffen, Director, Greenfield Business Assoc.

In 2026, business hits the intersection of high-tech efficiency and deeply human experience. AI is taking hold in the local marketplace, helping rural businesses punch above their weight. And it’s our job to help them compete. Online shopping isn’t slowing down, either; convenience is here to stay.

The twist: people are also showing up. Travel to the region is increasing, and there’s a quiet cultural reset. Less drinking, less doomscrolling, and more intentional socializing have led to growing demand for late-night spaces centered on connection: games, music, conversation, and creative gatherings.

For communities like Greenfield, this duality is not a contradiction — it’s an opportunity. The future of regional business is not digital or physical, but a thoughtful, well-supported blend of both: technology supporting human-centered experiences rather than replacing them.

None of this is happening without pressure or constraint. What’s encouraging is how places like Franklin County respond: pulling together regional and state leaders to advocate for policy changes that make progress possible, while staying relentlessly focused on the daily work — connecting businesses to opportunity, to one another, and to the resources they need to be hopeful about the future. That is where momentum turns into resilience.

Yes, there are tectonic shifts happening in how we do business, and there is a call back to the analog not as nostalgia, but as relief. 2026 will be a big year because we invested in places, people, and experiences that make this region worth showing up for.

Meg Sanders, CEO, Canna Provisions

If there is one thing we can count on in 2026, it’s that nobody in the cannabis industry truly knows what’s coming. The news about the Trump administration rescheduling cannabis to Schedule III have created the illusion of clarity, but let’s be honest. This is not the first time a White House has said, ‘hurry up and look at this issue.’ An executive order to study something is not the same as meaningful reform, and history has taught this industry not to confuse motion with progress.

At the same time, the Commonwealth is staring down a 2026 ballot initiative that could roll back adult-use sales entirely. If that happens, the results won’t be theoretical. The black market will surge overnight. Tens of thousands of jobs will vanish. Hundreds of millions in tax revenue will evaporate. And communities that embraced legal cannabis will be left to absorb the fallout. So when people confidently predict what 2026 will bring, I smile and take it with a grain of New Year’s salt.

The only certainty in cannabis right now is uncertainty, and savvy operators aren’t betting on promises or panic. Instead, they’re preparing for a year where adaptability, resilience, and clear-eyed realism will matter more than ever in Western Mass.

Timothy Suffish, CFA, Senior Vice President, Head of Equities, St. Germain Investments

Entering 2026, investors continue to expect more from their wealth management relationship. Simply managing their investments is not enough. They want a dedicated team of professionals to handle all of their finances. Whether it be their financial advisor walking them through their retirement plan options or a portfolio manager articulating market dynamics, clients expect a holistic approach that is professional and consistent with their expectations.

Wealth management continues steering more toward teams, as the work necessary to provide the maximum value to clients is simply too complex to take on for one person. A team comprised of advisors fluent in tax planning, estate planning, asset management, and financial planning is what’s expected to hit personal and professional financial goals.

Ultimately, trust is the foundation of a wealth management relationship. Having a trusted partner who is experienced and dependable is critical to accomplishing your financial goals.

George Timmons, President, Holyoke Community College

For community colleges, 2026 will be defined by one word: integration.

At HCC, we’ve spent six months in deep conversation — with faculty and staff, students, and nearly 100 regional business and nonprofit leaders — about the future we want to build together. Those conversations have positioned us to tackle the most pressing challenges in Western Mass. head-on.

HCC is uniquely positioned as the convener that brings diverse voices to the table. We sit at the intersection of education and workforce development, of student aspiration and employer need.

Free community college in Massachusetts has brought unprecedented enrollment growth and diversity to our campus. Our response isn’t to work harder in isolation — it’s to work smarter in partnership.

In 2026, we’ll leverage that convening power to build solutions: employer-driven programs that launch quickly, transportation coordination that gets students to class reliably, and wraparound supports addressing basic needs holistically. We’re partnering with regional employers to anticipate workforce gaps and prepare students for living-wage careers.

Community colleges belong to their communities. HCC will prove we’re the catalyst amplifying what’s great about Western Mass. while addressing our toughest challenges — together.

The 2026 View from Gen Z

By Contributor December 5, 2025

Opinion

By Samantha Borsari

As we head into 2026, Gen Z is signaling that a few workplace practices could use a refresh. At the top of the list: the notion that fully remote work is the ideal and that performance reviews should be limited to an annual conversation.

For Gen Z, personal connection is a critical component of being engaged with their work. Contrary to popular belief, Gen Z actively wants to establish relationships with their colleagues and feel a sense of community.

While fully remote setups have been popular among some generations, Gen Z is showing less of an appetite for this type of model. In fact, one recent report states that they are the “least likely generation to prefer exclusively remote work.” The reason for this lies in the fear of isolation and social disconnect that is often associated with this type of model. For many, concerns about mental health outweigh the appeal of a fully remote schedule.

For 2026, Gen Z would rather see hybrid work options. One recent report states that 83% of surveyed Gen Zers would choose the hybrid model over others. Why? Hybrid work strikes the right balance between in-person collaboration, where they can build relationships, learn on the job, and feel like they are a part of the culture, and also providing them with the remote flexibility that supports work-life boundaries.

Many Gen Z professionals are also vocal about wanting their colleagues, not just themselves, to come into the office more. For them, the value of in-office time comes from shared energy and social learning. While not all organizations can accommodate such schedules, it’s still important to acknowledge these emerging trends. Your Gen Z employees aren’t pushing for fully remote work, but rather seeking more connection through in-person opportunities.

The traditional model of annual performance reviews is another topic of contention for Gen Z as we move into 2026, as many feel this approach is slightly antiquated.

Gen Z wants more personalized, consistent feedback from their supervisors. Why? So they can progress in their careers more quickly, correct mistakes faster, and stay on track with their responsibilities. Waiting for the highly anticipated annual review is not seen as effective for this group; rather it’s seen as backward-looking.

What most Gen Z employees would like to see is an open-door policy and real-time feedback. Frequent, personalized check-ins boost their engagement and support their growth because they experience this style as coaching rather than criticism.

These check-ins don’t need to be long or formal; even brief touchpoints can go a long way. This might look like quick digital messages through tools like MS Teams or Slack, or short weekly meetings to review projects and address concerns. The goal here is to show intention and transparency with communication. Gen Z doesn’t want a rating at the end of each year; rather, they want coaching and real-time feedback to help them get better as the year goes on.

Heading into 2026, it’s not about rejecting remote work or traditional reviews, but about adapting them to create more connection, clarity, and authenticity. What matters most for Gen Z in the year ahead is fostering a culture where they can grow and genuinely feel valued.

Samantha Borsari is a member experience specialist at the Employers Assoc. of the NorthEast. This article first appeared on the EANE blog; eane.org

What Is the Outlook on Artificial Intelligence in 2025?

By Contributor January 30, 2025

Cybersecurity Special Coverage

Bracing for Change

By Delcie Bean

In 2024, artificial intelligence (AI) achieved significant milestones that have set the stage for transformative developments in 2025.

Key AI Milestones of 2024

Regulatory Frameworks: The European Union finalized its comprehensive AI Act, establishing a framework that balances innovation with ethical considerations. This legislative milestone is expected to influence global AI policies and governance.

Technological Advancements: Breakthroughs in AI-powered scientific discoveries, particularly in biomedicine, were highlighted by DeepMind’s AlphaFold, which demonstrated remarkable progress in protein folding. This advancement opened new avenues for drug development and biological research, showcasing AI’s potential to revolutionize science and healthcare industries.

Consumer Technology: The launch of the first AI-native smartphone, equipped with a dedicated AI chip, marked a shift toward more intelligent and personalized mobile devices. This innovation pushes the boundaries of user experience and sets the stage for future advancements in consumer electronics.

The Outlook on AI in 2025

Artificial intelligence continues to be one of the most transformative forces of our time, and 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year. As the pace of innovation accelerates, industries, businesses, and individuals are grappling with the opportunities and challenges AI presents. Among the current trends are:

Advancements in Generative AI: Generative AI is expanding beyond text, venturing into video production and other media forms. Tools like HeyGen, Sora, and Runway ML enable the creation of realistic and personalized video content, democratizing video production for businesses and individual creators.

AI Integration Across Sectors: Industries are adopting AI at scale in fields like:

• Healthcare: AI-powered diagnostics, personalized treatment plans, and drug discovery are becoming mainstream, enhancing patient care and operational efficiency.

• Finance: Predictive analytics and fraud-detection systems are improving efficiency and security in financial operations.

• Manufacturing: AI-driven automation and predictive maintenance are optimizing production lines, reducing downtime, and increasing productivity.

Predictions for AI in 2025

2025 promises exciting developments and disruptions:

Technology Breakthroughs: AI models will become more powerful, efficient, and accessible. Recent advances in energy-efficient AI, such as Google’s Pathways model, suggest that future systems will require less computational power while delivering superior performance. Moreover, multimodal AI — capable of processing text, images, and videos simultaneously — will enhance virtual assistants, enabling them to understand and respond in richer contexts.

For example, consider a smart-home system that can analyze both audio commands and video input to adjust lighting, recommend entertainment, or detect potential hazards.

Consumer-centric AI: Apple’s rumored ventures into AI are likely to materialize in 2025, potentially redefining personal technology. Imagine an AI-driven iOS system that not only anticipates user needs but also offers proactive suggestions, such as ordering groceries or suggesting health routines based on daily activity patterns.

Industry Disruptions: AI will reshape several sectors, with standout changes in:

• Education: Adaptive learning platforms like Squirrel AI are expected to evolve, offering highly personalized curriculums that cater to individual student needs. AI tutors could become commonplace, providing real-time feedback and assistance across subjects.

• Logistics: Companies like Amazon and FedEx are already testing AI-driven autonomous delivery systems. By 2025, we might see widespread use of drone deliveries and autonomous vehicles in urban centers.

• Urban Planning: Smart cities will leverage AI for everything from traffic management to waste reduction. Projects like Sidewalk Labs in Toronto are early examples of how AI can transform urban living.

Challenges and Considerations: Despite its promise, AI’s growth is not without hurdles:

• Data Privacy and Security: As AI systems handle sensitive information, ensuring robust data protection will be crucial to maintaining trust.

• Bias and Inclusivity: Addressing biases in AI algorithms remains a pressing issue. Inclusive development practices are essential to prevent perpetuating inequalities.

• Economic and Social Impact: The balance between innovation and job displacement will be a critical conversation. Preparing for AI’s impact on the workforce is imperative for a smooth transition.

Opportunities for Businesses and Individuals: AI in 2025 isn’t just about challenges; it’s also about immense opportunities:

• Leveraging AI for Growth: Businesses of all sizes can use AI to gain a competitive edge. From automating routine tasks to enabling new product innovations, the potential is vast.

• Upskilling the Workforce: Training and reskilling will be key. Organizations investing in their employees’ AI literacy will thrive in the evolving landscape.

• AI as a Partner, Not a Threat: Collaborative human-AI workflows can enhance productivity and creativity, showing that AI complements human capabilities rather than replacing them.

Conclusion

As we look to 2025, AI’s trajectory is clear: it will become more integrated, powerful, and impactful across all facets of life. However, with great power comes great responsibility. It’s up to businesses, governments, and individuals to steer AI’s development toward ethical, inclusive, and beneficial outcomes.

The future of AI is not set in stone — it’s a story we’re all writing together. By staying informed, adapting to change, and embracing innovation, we can ensure that 2025 marks another milestone in AI’s journey toward improving lives and transforming industries.

Delcie Bean is CEO of Paragus Strategic I.T.

Annual Industry Outlook Predicts Slow, Uneven Recovery in 2021

By Contributor December 8, 2020

Construction Special Coverage

Constructing a Picture

In its recently released 2021 Dodge Construction Outlook, Dodge Data & Analytics predicts that total U.S. construction starts will increase 4% in 2021, to $771 billion.

“The COVID-19 pandemic and recession has had a profound impact on the U.S. economy, leading to a deep dropoff in construction starts in the first half of 2020,” said Richard Branch, chief economist for Dodge Data & Analytics. “While the recovery is underway, the road to full recovery will be long and fraught with potential potholes. After losing an estimated 14% in 2020 to $738 billion, total construction starts will regain just 4% in 2021.”

Furthermore, he added, “uncertainty surrounding the next wave of COVID-19 infections in the fall and winter and delayed fiscal stimulus will lead to a slow and jagged recovery in 2021. Business and consumer confidence will improve over the year as further stimulus comes in early 2021 and a vaccine is approved and becomes more widely distributed, but construction markets have been deeply scarred and will take considerable time to fully recover.”

He noted that the dollar value of starts for residential buildings is expected to increase 5% in 2021, non-residential buildings will gain 3%, and non-building construction will improve 7%. “Only the residential sector, however, will exceed its 2019 level of starts thanks to historically low mortgage rates that boost single-family housing.”

The pattern of construction starts for more specific segments is as follows:

• The dollar value of single-family housing starts will be up 7% in 2021, and the number of units will grow 6% to 928,000. Historically low mortgage rates and a preference for less-dense living during the pandemic are clearly overpowering short-term labor-market and economic concerns.

• Multi-family construction, however, will pay the price for the single-family gain. The large overhang of high-end construction in large metro areas combined with declining rents will lead to a further pullback in 2021. Dollar value will drop 1%, while the number of units started falls 2% to 484,000.

• The dollar value of commercial-building starts will increase 5% in 2021. Warehouse construction will be the clear winner as e-commerce giants continue to build out their logistics infrastructure. Office starts will also increase due to rising demand for data centers (included in the office category), as well as renovations to existing space. Retail and hotel activity will languish.

• In 2021, institutional construction starts will increase by a tepid 1% as growing state and local budget deficits impact public-building construction. Education construction is expected to see further declines in 2021, while healthcare starts are predicted to rise as hospitals seek to improve in-patient bed counts.

• The dollar value of manufacturing plant construction will remain flat in 2021. Declining petrochemical construction and weak domestic and global activity will dampen starts, while a small handful of expected project groundbreakings will level out the year.

• Public-works construction starts will see little improvement as 2021 begins due to continued uncertainty surrounding additional federal aid for state and local areas. Additionally, the unfinished appropriations process for fiscal year 2021, which began Oct. 1, raises doubt about the sector’s ability to post a strong gain in 2021. Public-works construction starts will be flat over the year.

• Electric utilities and gas plants will gain 35% in 2021, led by expected groundbreakings for several large natural-gas export facilities and an increasing number of wind farms.

As Shoppers Gradually Return, Retailers Face Uncertain Outlook

By Joseph Bednar August 4, 2020

Coronavirus Special Coverage

Step Inside

Jade Jump and Nate Clifford, owners of Cornucopia in Northampton.

For Dave DiRico, the forced shutdown of retail outlets across the Commonwealth in March could not have been more ill-timed.

After all, late March is when many golfers, a good number of them armed with gift certificates from the holidays, start filing into his store in West Springfield, DiRico’s Golf & Racquet, and reload for the coming season. They come in looking for new clubs, balls, bags, shoes, and other accessories.

And they keep coming in through the spring, said DiRico, noting that, aside from the holidays, March, April, and May are by far his busiest months.

But not this year, obviously, as he was closed completely until early May and then open for curbside sales only — something this business isn’t really suited for — for several weeks.

But when he did reopen … well, the surge in business might not make up for everything that was lost during the shutdown, but it has been significant and in many ways surprising. Indeed, in addition to what could be called pent-up demand — people who needed to reload and had to wait until he was open to do so — the pandemic has actually created a mini-explosion of interest in golf, because it’s one of the few sports that can still be played under the current restrictions and advisories on social distancing.

“Things took off … it’s been crazy,” DiRico told BusinessWest. “One of the few outdoor activities you can have right now is golf; we have kids who were supposed to do internships and can’t, and they’ve taken up golf. We have kids who played baseball and summer sports and couldn’t play those, so they’ve taken up golf. We have spouses who’ve never played the game who have taken up golf.

“Couple that with our regular business,” he went on, “and June and July have taken off like a rocket ship.”

Nate Clifford has also navigated the ups and downs of shutting down and reopening at Cornucopia, the natural-foods store he and his wife, Jade Jump, own at Thornes Marketplace in downtown Northampton. They were among many shop owners who had to shift their business model on the fly to survive the past few difficult months.

“Shoppers are saying, ‘I just wanted to shop with somebody locally.’ We’re hearing a lot of that. I think that’s awesome.”

In fact, March 15, the day they and all the other Thornes stores shut down, was the couple’s one-year anniversary of buying the 40-year-old establishment. Though sales of food and wellness products may have made Cornucopia an essential business in the state’s eyes, Thornes made a decision to shutter the whole complex, and that meant Cornucopia, too.

“We understood, but we made an impassioned plea to the landlord to give us some access for pickup and delivery, with the goal of helping people, especially the older population around here who need us,” Clifford said. One day later, on March 16, they were back in business with that new model.

“We put a simple order form up on the website and told people, ‘you shop here; you know what’s here — what’s your wish list, and we’ll get the best possible order for you.’ We delivered, or you could pick it up and we’d run it out to you, put it in your trunk or in the passenger window, whatever you were comfortable with. We did that for three months, and we were overwhelmed with the support we got.”

That support was certainly reflected on June 15, the first day shoppers were allowed back in the store itself. “We had such a rush of people, I had to step into the back room to shed a few tears,” Clifford said. “I thought, ‘we’re going to be OK.’”

Unfortunately, not all retailers can say the same thing. They’ve seen some pent-up demand, to be sure, but 2020 is turning into a very challenging year as many shoppers are staying home, cutting back on their spending (or both), and doing most of their buying online.

Still, retailers are happy to be open again, even if the long-term outlook is mixed, and consumer confidence remains uncertain.

One Step at a Time

Sharon Cohen, who has owned Footbeats for Women at Thornes for the past four years, noted that, without college students and tourists from out of town, business is slower than is typical for this time of year, but customers are returning steadily. She’s happy to see them, especially after instituting the safety measures mandated by the state — and by common sense.

“We’ve revamped the way the store is laid out to promote social distancing,” Cohen said. “Shoppers are saying, ‘I just wanted to shop with somebody locally.’ We’re hearing a lot of that. I think that’s awesome.”

After Thornes was shut down in mid-March, Cohen launched a website so customers could still purchase her shoes, and, like Clifford, she delivered to peoples’ homes. Every Friday afternoon, she used Facebook Live to talk about shoes in stock and offer commentary on trends and new styles.

“I’d pick them off the displays on the wall and talk about them. Customers would text and ask questions about cost or size,” she said, noting that she will likely continue that practice. “We tried new, inventive ways to meet the customers.”

In the store, she tries to strike a balance between customer needs and safety; for example, when customers try on a pair of shoes, if they are leather and cannot be sanitized, the shoes are put in quarantine for 24 hours, as per Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines.

Dave DiRico says a mini-explosion in the popularity of golf has helped offset some of the huge losses incurred when his shop was shut down by the pandemic during the spring.

Thornes management has instituted many new protocols and equipment, including iWave ionizing air filters that heighten air quality, foggers that sanitize the building nightly, and door monitors at each of the two open entrances to ensure that people entering wear masks and sanitize their hands. The complex also installed hands-free door openers on bathroom doors.

“Thornes has done a lot to prepare for our opening, and we continue to stay educated and follow safety protocols,” said Richard Madowitz, the marketplace’s co-president. “We are receiving consistent positive feedback from shoppers on the cleanliness of the building and their comfort. We are providing a safe environment.”

All shared tables and chairs on the building’s second and third floors have been removed, and directional arrows on the floors separate traffic and promote social distancing.

“Signage is everywhere,” Madowitz stressed. “Each store is managing its state-mandated capacity count, and Thornes itself is managing the state-mandated capacity counts for its common spaces without shops.”

“I make sure people who come into the store feel safe. I’m doing what I feel is right by my customers and staff. That’s my focus.”

Mask compliance is high, at 99%, he noted, adding that “masks are not required for those with medical conditions that prevent them from wearing one.”

Despite what he calls a “vocal minority” making waves nationally about mask wearing, Clifford said his customers have been respectful of the mandate.

“We’re dealing with people who have health issues, and I’d say the average customer spending big amounts is over 50, getting supplements, taking to our expert staff. We want them to feel safe,” he told BusinessWest. “For those folks who don’t want to wear masks, even for legitimate reasons, we still have pickup and curbside. But I make sure people who come into the store feel safe. I’m doing what I feel is right by my customers and staff. That’s my focus.”

Visitors to Holyoke Mall are greeted with a similarly wide range of mandates, from face coverings and six-foot distancing to directional arrows and guidance to wash hands, use sanitizer, and avoid touching products unless purchasing them, said Lisa Wray, the mall’s director of Marketing.

In return, the mall has enhanced its cleaning and sanitizing of the common areas and numerous touch points, restrooms, seating areas, and food court, and the cleaning team is utilizing new electrostatic sprayers, leveraging the same technology used to clean hospital rooms, using an approved disinfectant recommended by the CDC. In addition, Holyoke Mall employees, security, housekeeping staff, and contractors undergo daily health screenings.

Sharon Cohen says she used online outreach and a sales website to stay afloat during the shutdown.

All those steps were necessary, Wray said, to not only bring customers back, but make them feel safe upon return.

“Having our tenants close with thousands of employees and their livelihoods impacted is certainly difficult; however, the safety and well-being of our guests, employees, and tenants is of primary importance,” she told BusinessWest.

“We have been seeing guests steadily return to the shopping center, and even with reduced occupancy, tenants have been seeing strong sales,” she added. “With the back-to-school season upon us and the sales-tax holiday weekend at the end of August, we’re hopeful the months ahead will continue to trend positively. We’re cautiously optimistic that the fourth quarter will continue to ramp upward, as guests adapt to this new way to shop.”

Warning Signs

That optimistic view isn’t shared by the entire retail industry. Just last week, two businesses at the Shops at Marketplace in downtown Springfield — Serendipity and Alchemy Nail Bar — announced they were closing, unable to stay afloat after the forced pandemic closure and an inability to procure business aid from either the federal Paycheck Protection Program or the city’s Prime the Pump grants.

Meanwhile, on a national level, Tailored Brands, which owns suit sellers Men’s Wearhouse and Jos. A. Bank, is closing hundreds of stores and drastically reducing its corporate workforce as the pandemic continues to decimate the retail industry.

GlobalData Retail recently noted that year-over-year sales of men’s formal clothing fell by 74% between April and June, and not just because stores were closed. “While this deterioration will ease over time, demand will remain suppressed for the rest of 2020 and well into 2021 as office working, business meetings, and socializing are all reduced.”

Fortunately for DiRico, the pandemic has done the opposite in the golf sector, creating some opportunities in the form of new players who need equipment — with many of them using stimulus checks to buy it. But there are challenges as well, starting with shortages of stock caused by closure of factories and then restrictions on capacity.

“Our biggest problem right now is getting equipment,” he explained. “That’s because most of our manufacturers are based in California, where only 40% of the factory is open, which means they can only produce ‘X’ amount of clubs for the world; it’s slow in getting equipment.”

Other challenges include the many the new rules and protocols regarding social distancing and sanitizing, he went on. Still, for the customer, things are pretty much business as usual, meaning they can still try on shoes or gloves and take a few practice swings with a driver in the simulator.

‘Normal’ is not a word that comes to mind when describing operations or this year in general, but overall, the surge the game has seen will certainly help make 2020 less forgettable, DiRico went on, and it offers considerable hope for the future — if those who have taken up this difficult, expensive, and time-consuming game can find a way to stay with it.

“For the past 15 years or so, golf has been on the decline,” he said, listing cost and time among the big reasons. “Now, some of the pros I’ve talked with say they’re booked solid; they have tee times from 6:30 to 4. And membership at the country clubs is up. If these clubs can retain just 15% of these new golfers, they’ll be in good shape.”

For Cornucopia, the pandemic offered an opportunity to build an online, pickup, and delivery presence it might not have otherwise, Clifford said — one it will continue to maintain, opening up new business avenues.

“We were thrilled to be able to pivot to that quickly. That’s one thing Jade and I do well, being flexible and doing whatever we need to survive. We’re resilient, and now that we have a strong foundation, if we were ever to experience another shutdown, we’ll be able to continue the cash flow.”

These days, sales volume isn’t what it was on reopening day on June 15, and won’t be until colleges are back in session. “That’s when you normally see more foot traffic; July is not a busy retail time,” Clifford noted, adding that a weakened tourism season isn’t helping, as even visitors to the Berkshires often make their way to downtown Northampton for an afternoon. “That’s not happening right now.”

But he’s cheered that all the Thornes businesses are open seven days a week. “That has caused a lot more consistency in the shopping experience, when the stores are open and welcoming people and wanting them to come in and physically shop.”

And hoping that extended shutdown is a thing of the past.

Joseph Bednar can be reached at [email protected]

Economic Outlook 2020

By George O'Brien January 7, 2020

Cover Story

History indicates a recession, but most just aren’t seeing evidence of one

‘Optimistic skepticism.’ That’s the phrase one area bank president summoned as he talked about the year ahead and, more specifically, talk of a recession. While history — especially as it relates to the inverted yield curve — tells us one is very likely, most all other indicators, from unemployment and inflation rates to the stock market to the steady pipeline of work on the books at area construction-related firms we spoke with, say something else.

It was the Monday before Christmas. John Raymaakers II wasn’t planning on being in that day, but an important bid was due, and he had to wrap up the paperwork.

There were a lot of bids to vie for in 2019, Raymaakers, a principal with Westfield-based general contractor J.L. Raymaakers & Sons Inc., told BusinessWest, noting that the company prevailed in several of these competitions, success that translated into one of the company’s better years recently.

And it’s a trend he expects will continue into 2020.

“We’re still busy at this time of year, and that’s a good thing for us,” he said, noting that the firm specializes in heavy civil construction work such as water, sewer, and drainage systems. “And we’ve got jobs we’re bidding on — one today and another next week. We have a good amount of work in front of us, so we’re feeling pretty good.”

Raymaakers is not alone when it comes to a generally positive outlook for the year ahead. Indeed, BusinessWest talked with several business owners, including many in the construction sector — usually a highly accurate barometer of the overall economy — to get a feel for what might be in store as a new decade dawns.

Slicing through the various comments, it appears there is some uncertainty about the year ahead, which is natural given the considerable talk about a recession, the fact that is a presidential election year, and the ongoing workforce issues facing virtually every sector of the economy.

But there was also something approaching consensus that the generally good times that prevailed in 2019 — and for the past several years, for that matter — will continue in the year ahead.

Tom Senecal, president and CEO of Holyoke-based PeoplesBank, told BusinessWest that, while some indicators may give pause for concern, such as an inverted yield curve (more on that later), most would indicate there is little trouble on the immediate horizon.

“The economy is doing really well,” he said. “We see that in our numbers — from our loan perspective, with delinquency rates … everything is humming along.”

Curtis Edgin, a principal with the Chicopee-based architecture firm Caolo & Bieniek, sounded a similar tone when asked what he’s seeing and hearing.

Tom Senecal says he believes in history and the power of the inverted yield curve to forecast recessions. But his eyes prompt him to be ‘optimistically skeptical’ about a downturn.

“No one’s seen any signs of it letting up,” he said of an expansion that has lasted a full decade now, adding quickly that he’s seen enough economic cycles to know that things can change quickly. He just hasn’t seen any evidence that they will.

Meanwhile, Scott Keiter, a principal with Northampton-based Keiter Builders, said his firm had a record year in 2019. He quickly qualified that by saying the business, only 11 years old, has grown every year since its inception and 2019 was merely the latest in a succession of ‘record years.’

That said, the company, like others we spoke with, has a solid flow of work that will keep it busy well into the new year, with more projects on the horizon.

“Most of our work is institutional and commercial, but we also saw a significant increase in larger residential projects, and I think that’s a good sign — people are willing to invest significant amounts of money in their properties” he said. “And we have a good, secured pipeline for the spring and early summer, and that’s not always the case.”

But, while general optimism prevails, there are challenges facing business owners and managers, especially when it comes to workforce issues, specifically finding and retaining talent.

Indeed, what was once considered a good problem to have — and some still use that phrase because it generally means business is good — is now considered to be just a problem. A nagging problem.

“My membership would say, to a company, that the biggest barrier they have to increased growth is finding more people and finding the right people to expand the workforce and take on additional work that’s out there,” said Rick Sullivan, president of the Economic Development Council (EDC) of Western Mass. “The biggest problem we’re facing is workforce — finding talent, developing talent, and retaining talent — and that’s across all levels, from entry level to middle and upper management.”

For this issue and its focus on the 2020 Economic Outlook, BusinessWest talked with several business and economic-development leaders about what to expect in the year ahead. While no one has a crystal ball, most say their eyes tell them the decade-long expansion could certainly continue into the next decade.

Work in the Pipeline

Senecal told BusinessWest he was giving a speech a few months back, and while talking about the economy in general, he referenced the inverted yield curve and its historical significance.

“Every time a yield curve has gone inverted or flat in the past 50 years, and there have been seven times, in every single case it has indicated a recession, usually about nine months after the yield curve gets inverted,” he said, summarizing his remarks. “Which would indicate a recession around May or June of 2020; that’s what history tells us.

“But when you look at our economic numbers — extremely low unemployment, inflation in check, economic growth being wonderful, the stock market doing wonderful … I’m not a predictor, but indications don’t feel the same as they have over the past 50 years,” he went on. “If you’re a believer in historical data as a predictor of future performance, then the numbers say a recession should come in May or June. But I just don’t see it. I am a believer in history, and I am a believer in data, but let’s just say that I’m optimistically skeptical when it comes to a recession.”

There are a many reasons to be optimistically skeptical when it comes to a recession, especially when talking with those in construction-related businesses, which, as noted, provide an historically accurate barometer of what’s happening with the economy.

That’s especially true of architects, who usually feel the effects of a downturn before almost anyone else. Edgin, who, as noted, has been through a number of ups and downs in the economic cycle in his 35-year career, said he hasn’t seen anything to indicate the economy is slowing to any great degree.

His firm handles both public- and private-sector work, and especially the former. Edgin said this diversity has helped it ride out the slow times. The firm has completed much of its work involving an $85 million elementary-school project in Easthampton and doesn’t have anything approaching that scale in the pipeline. But there is work in the pipeline.

Scott Keiter says his construction business has a solid pipeline of work heading into 2020, a sign of a generally sound economy.

“We’re busy,” said Edgin, using a word that most in the construction field would certainly like to hear him use. “We’re seeing a significant number of studies for projects like senior centers, town halls, libraries, or police stations — people recognize the need; they just need to get their ducks aligned to keep things moving.”

Meanwhile, his firm is handling a handful of smaller projects, including work at the Boys & Girls Club in West Springfield, Westfield State University, and other institutions, as well as some private-sector projects.

Summing things up, he said the company is “catching our breath” after a solid 2019 punctuated by the Easthampton project and waiting for some of those projects in the study phase — and there are quite a few of them — to come to fruition.

“Maybe that’s the adjustment,” he told BusinessWest. “And if that’s all the adjustment we need, I’m happy with that; we were oversubscribed, let me put it that way, in 2018 and 2019.”

This past year was also a busy one for Keiter Builders, which, as noted, had a number of projects on both the residential and commercial sides of the ledger. The latter category included a good deal of work at both Smith College and Amherst College, while the former featured several new homes and a number of large-scale renovation projects.

Summing up what he’s heard from clients in both realms concerning the economy and the year ahead, he said it’s mostly upbeat.

“The people sending the money our way … it’s generally positive,” he noted. “We’re not hearing anything from them that’s concerning — it’s just your normal chatter. People are steaming forward; they’re investing in infrastructure and capital projects. And that’s good news for us.”

Raymaakers concurred. He said 2019 was a busy year — he said it was a ‘9,’ maybe a ‘9½’ on a scale of 1 to 10 — that featured several large-scale projects, including runway-grading work at Barnes Municipal Airport in Westfield and dam repair at Forest Park. Work was so steady, the company added employees, bringing the total to 39.

John Raymaakers, seen here with his wife and business partner, Laurie, says the company is feeling “pretty good” about 2020 and the economy in general.

Looking ahead, he told BusinessWest the firm remains optimistic.

“We’ll see how the election goes, and after that … who knows?” he said. “Right now, we feel pretty good about things.”

Work in Progress

Those comments sum up how most people feel about almost everything except the workforce challenges facing them.

Raymaakers said his company did bring on more people, but finding them wasn’t easy. Keiter said his firm also struggled to find people to handle its growing workload.

And Senecal confirmed that the problem extends to positions at all rungs of the hiring ladder. To put the matter in perspective, he talked about a position the bank has been trying to fill — unsuccessfully — for half a year now.

“We’ve been looking for someone for more than six months in our Accounting department, someone with five to 10 years of experience in the banking industry,” he noted. “And what’s more surprising is that, with all the consolidation going on in this industry, we’re still not able to find someone for that position.

“Overall, it is very difficult to find people right now for many of the jobs where we’re looking for specific skills — it’s virtually impossible in some areas,” he went on. “It’s been such a challenge, and that’s a clear indication of what’s happening in many sectors.”

Indeed, the problem is prevalent in pretty much every sector of the economy, said Sullivan, noting that it is manifesting itself in a number of ways.

One is some upward movement on wages and benefits, which is yet another sign of a healthy economy, he said, adding that, while this isn’t happening across the board, there is movement in many sectors where there is steep competition for talent, especially precision manufacturing and financial services.

“People have choices when it comes to where they can work,” he told BusinessWest. “People are looking around, so in order to keep a workforce, people are having to pay a little more and provide some other benefits or incentives.”

In addition to movement on wages, there is a greater focus on trying to bring more people into the workforce, said Sullivan, noting that, through a grant from the Boston Federal Reserve and the Working Cities Initiative, the region has launched efforts to bring some of those who have been on the outside looking in when it comes to the workforce into the fold.

These endeavors involve mostly entry-level positions, and they’re a relatively new point of emphasis for the EDC, he said, adding that they are generating some results, putting those who have been unemployed or underemployed not just into jobs but onto career paths.

Meanwhile, the EDC is looking at taking steps to bolster the workforce, including what could be called recruiting efforts — steps to market Western Mass. and its many benefits in the hope that some may seek to relocate.

“This might involve some regional advertising initiative — an effort to raise awareness about Western Mass. and how it’s a great place to live, there are opportunities here, the cost of living is lower than many other areas of the state and the country,” he explained. “And while it’s a great place to live, it’s also a great place to work.”

Such efforts would be focused on other areas in the Northeast, especially older manufacturing cities that may not be doing as well as the Greater Springfield area, Sullivan noted, adding that he’s not expecting to lure people from Arizona or Florida.

“Sometimes, it’s a little tough to sell those winter months,” he said with a laugh, adding that the region does have many saleable assets, and its businesses need workers to grow.

Such a campaign would not have a large budget, and it would be waged mostly with social media, he said, adding that there is an opportunity to attract people for certain sectors, especially precision manufacturing.

“It will not a be a large media campaign — you won’t be seeing us on the Patriots game,” he said, adding that targeted messages promoting opportunities in specific sectors may help grow the workforce.

Forward Progress

Traditionally, the phrase one hears when it comes to the economy and the year ahead is ‘cautious optimism.’

There’s some of that this year — quite a bit, in fact. But overall, there’s more of that optimistic skepticism that Senecal spoke of and that others referenced, even if they didn’t use those exact words.

History, and some of the economic indicators, tell us that a downturn is likely, if not imminent.

But most business owners and managers just aren’t seeing it — and that’s certainly a good sign as a new year and a new decade begin.

George O’Brien can be reached at [email protected]