BOSTON — Moderating inflation, sustained economic growth, and the prospect of lower interest rates boosted confidence among Massachusetts employers during the first month of 2024. Not every sector of the economy, however, broke out the party hats.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index gained 0.9 points to 53.5 in January, hitting an 11-month high that left it comfortably in optimistic territory. The Index was 0.3 point higher than in January 2023.

The strengthening of business confidence came as the U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2023, labor markets remained strong, and inflation steadied at about one-third of its high point in June 2022. The Federal Reserve held its federal funds rate steady last week as Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed seeks a “true signal” that it is time to reduce rates.

“The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly robust pace in the second half of 2023, outpacing the economies of Europe and other developed countries,” said Sara Johnson, chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA). “Businesses expect more subdued U.S. growth in 2024 amid multiple geopolitical risks.  Thus, Massachusetts employers are becoming more cautious in their hiring decisions.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The January results highlighted a growing confidence gap between manufacturing companies and non-manufacturers. Confidence among Massachusetts manufacturers fell 3.4 points to 46.4 in January, while companies outside the manufacturing sector registered a 3-point jump to 57. Analysts believe manufacturers remain concerned about weakness in residential investment, business fixed investment, and motor-vehicle purchases, driven in part by the lagged effects of higher interest rates.

The Central Massachusetts Business Confidence Index, conducted with the Worcester Regional Chamber of Commerce, fell from 50.0 to 49.1. The North Shore Confidence Index, conducted with the North Shore Chamber of Commerce, surged from 52.1 to 57.3. The Western Massachusetts Business Confidence Index, developed in collaboration with the Springfield Regional Chamber of Commerce, rose from 48.9 to 50.4.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index were mixed during January. The confidence employers have in their own companies gained 1.7 points to 54.5, ending the month 2.0 points less than in January 2023.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth declined 0.6 point to 54.0, leaving it 3.8 points higher than a year earlier. The U.S. Index measuring conditions throughout the country ended the month at 50.4, which is 3.7 points better than a year ago.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, climbed 1.3 points to 52.5. The Future Index gained 0.6 points to 54.6 as employers saw improvement ahead in the first half of 2024.

The drop in the Manufacturing Index left that measure 4.4 points below the level of a year ago. Meanwhile, the Employment Index lost 0.9 points to 51.6, leaving it 4.7 points less than in January 2023. Large companies (55.4) were more optimistic than small companies (54.0) and medium-sized companies (51.0).

Michael Goodman, professor of Public Policy at UMass Dartmouth and a BEA member, said the Massachusetts economy has been remarkably resilient in the face of the Fed’s 18-month campaign to moderate inflation.

“Solid job creation and robust consumer spending helped the state economy expand at an estimated 3.8% annualized rate of growth during the third quarter,” Goodman noted. “And the Census Bureau recently reported that the state’s population grew during 2023, underscoring the Commonwealth’s growing reliance on international immigration as a source of population and labor-force growth.”

AIM President Brooke Thomson, also a BEA member, said Gov. Maura Healey’s announcement at the January AIM Executive Forum that state government will eliminate unnecessary educational requirements for many jobs highlights a trend among private employers working to create new opportunities for people who may not have degrees or diplomas.

“We celebrate the fact that Massachusetts has the best higher-education system on the planet,” Thomson said, “but we also have to create opportunities for that half of the population who have tremendous skills and the potential to contribute to the economic future of the Commonwealth.”

BOSTON — Brightening prospects for an economic soft landing bolstered confidence among Massachusetts employers as an unpredictable 2023 drew to a close.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index gained 1.6 points to 52.6 in December, hitting a nine-month high that left it in optimistic territory at year end. The Index was 1.4 points lower than the same time last year.

The strengthening of business confidence came amid strong signals that inflation continues to moderate at a 3.1% annual rate. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Dec. 13 that interest-rate increases appear to be over for now and that there may be three reductions in interest rates during 2024.

“The good news is that the pace of inflation has slowed noticeably since mid-2022. This should give the Fed some confidence that tighter monetary policy is working without widespread job losses,” said Sara Johnson, chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA).

The Central Massachusetts Business Confidence Index, conducted with the Worcester Regional Chamber of Commerce, rose from 49.6 to 50.0. The North Shore Confidence Index, conducted with the North Shore Chamber of Commerce, remained essentially flat at 52.1. The Western Massachusetts Business Confidence Index, developed in collaboration with the Springfield Regional Chamber of Commerce, fell from 51.8 to 48.9.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index all strengthened during December. The confidence employers have in their own companies gained 0.8 point to 52.8, ending the month 4.4 points less than in December 2022.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth increased 2 points to 54.6, leaving it 2 points higher than a year earlier. The U.S. Index measuring conditions throughout the country ended the month at 49.9, which is 3.7 points better than a year ago.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, climbed 0.6 point to 51.2. The Future Index gained 2.6 points to 54.0 as employers saw improvement ahead in the first half of 2024.

The Manufacturing Index gained 1.9 points to 49.8, still 5.5 points below its level of a year ago. Confidence among non-manufacturing companies was up 1.1 points to 54.0. The highlight of the December results was the Employment Index, which surged 3.8 points to 52.5. Large companies (54.2) were more optimistic than small companies (52.2) and medium-sized companies (50.7).

Nada Sanders, distinguished professor of Supply Chain Management at Northeastern University and a BEA member, said the easing of the product shortages and supply-chain disruptions that marked the immediate post-pandemic years has played an important role in moderating inflation.

“The Federal Reserve believes that supply constraints explain half of the increase in inflation during 2021-22 and that tight capacity served to amplify the impact of loose monetary policy in 2021,” Sanders noted. “The resolution of those supply constraints is one reason that inflation eased so dramatically in 2023.”

AIM President Brooke Thomson, also a BEA member, suggested that Massachusetts needs a new, far-reaching approach to economic development, one that seamlessly melds competitiveness for the business community with affordability for the residents who work at Massachusetts-based companies and live in the Commonwealth.

“Make no mistake, we must continue to prioritize the traditional pillars of economic development, like advantageous tax rates, streamlined regulation, and efficient permitting,” Thomson said. “But economic development must also address the soaring cost of everything from housing to childcare to healthcare, which is driving some of our best and brightest employees to less expensive regions of the country.”

BOSTON — The Commonwealth’s largest business association will celebrate an historic leadership transition on Jan. 1 when Brooke Thomson becomes CEO of Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM).

Thomson succeeds John Regan, who announced earlier this year his intention to step down from the top post. The AIM board of directors named Thomson president of the 3,400-member organization in June and announced that she would become chief executive on Jan. 1.

Thomson will be the first woman to lead AIM since its founding by a group of forward-looking Massachusetts employers in 1915. More importantly, she brings to the position a far-reaching approach to economic development that seamlessly melds competitiveness for the business community with affordability for the residents who live and work here.

“Make no mistake, we must continue to prioritize the traditional pillars of economic development like advantageous tax rates, streamlined regulation, and efficient permitting that are the bedrock of business success and job creation. But economic development must also address the soaring cost of everything from housing to childcare to healthcare, which is driving some of our best and brightest employees to less expensive regions of the country,” Thomson said. “The exodus of working-age people, accelerated by the rise of remote work, is exacerbating an already-dire labor shortage that has employers struggling to fill their payrolls in an economy running at 2.8% unemployment.”

Before joining AIM’s leadership team more than four years ago as executive vice president of Government Affairs, Thomson was a member of the AIM board. Her tenure as head of AIM’s Government Affairs operation required her to design and advance AIM’s policy agenda and strengthen relationships with elected officials and business leaders on Beacon Hill and throughout the Commonwealth, all the while ensuring that employer needs were represented at every level of the public-policymaking process.

She has been successful on all counts and is committed to expanding the progress AIM has made in diversifying its membership, reflecting the statewide business-community needs and advancing policies that support both economic competitiveness and economic opportunity for the people of Massachusetts. Thomson previously served as vice president of Government Affairs for AT&T and is a former senior official with the Massachusetts Attorney General’s office.

Patricia Begrowicz, AIM board chair and president of Onyx Specialty Papers, noted that “we are fortunate to have a leader of Brooke’s caliber and proven track record ready to advance to the position of president and CEO.  We are confident that she will build upon AIM’s many strengths in the role. I am confident that AIM is in outstanding hands with Brooke, our great team of senior leaders and professionals, and a committed board of directors.”

BOSTON — Business confidence remained essentially flat during November amid a softening labor market, cooling wage growth, and moderating inflation.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index lost two-tenths of a point to 51.0 last month, continuing its pattern of hovering near the dividing line between optimism and pessimism. The Index ended the month 7.7 points lower than the same time last year.

Steady employer sentiment in November reflected a Massachusetts economy that outperformed expectations by growing at a 3.8% annualized rate during the third quarter. Nationally, job growth was less than expected in October, while wage growth eased to 4.1% year over year.

“Strong consumer spending throughout the summer helped the U.S. and Massachusetts economies during a period in which the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates to moderate inflation. The hope is now that the economy will slow in a deliberate manner instead of falling into recession,” said Sara Johnson, chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA).

The Central Massachusetts Business Confidence Index, conducted with the Worcester Regional Chamber of Commerce, rose from 45.7 to 49.6. The North Shore Confidence Index, conducted with the North Shore Chamber of Commerce, declined from 54.2 to 52.2. The Western Massachusetts Business Confidence Index, developed in collaboration with the Springfield Regional Chamber of Commerce, also lost ground, from 54.1 to 51.8.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index were mixed during November. The confidence employers have in their own companies gained 0.1 point to 52.0, ending the month 10.8 points less than in November 2022.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth decreased 1.0 point to 52.6, leaving it down 3.6 points from a year earlier. The U.S. Index measuring conditions throughout the country ended the month at 46.4, which is 2.2 points lower than a year ago.

The bright spot of the November numbers was the Future Index, which gained 1.3 points to 51.4 as employers saw improvement ahead in the first six months of 2024. The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, fell 1.6 points to 50.6.

The Manufacturing Index lost 0.6 point to 47.9, falling 8.4 points below its level of a year ago. Confidence among non-manufacturing companies was up 0.8 point to 52.9. The Employment Index fell 1.4 points to 48.7. Large companies (54.2) were more optimistic than medium-sized companies (51.7) and small companies (47.8).

Elmore Alexander, dean emeritus of the Ricciardi College of Business at Bridgewater State University and a BEA member, said the white-hot job market both in Massachusetts and nationally appears to be approaching equilibrium, reducing inflationary pressure on wages.

“The U.S. economy added 150,000 jobs in October, and job growth in August and September was revised down by a cumulative 101,000 jobs. The Massachusetts unemployment rate, meanwhile, rose to 2.8%,” Alexander noted.

AIM President Brooke Thomson, also a BEA member, confirmed that the association is seeing signs of wage moderation among its 3,400 members.

“The AIM HR Practices Survey to be published later this month will show that employers plan somewhat smaller wage increases in 2024 than in 2023,” she said. “Those projections are consistent with national trends: wage growth has been slowing steadily since March, and overall inflation cooled to 3.2% in October.”

BOSTON — Massachusetts employers appear to be just as ambivalent about the state of the economy as many experts.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index continued to hover around the dividing line between optimism and pessimism last month. The Index rose 1.4 points to 51.2 during October, leaving it 0.3 points higher than in October 2022.

The Index has moved for most of 2023 in a narrow range as employers attempt to gauge an economy that has proved surprisingly resilient in the face of rising interest rates, predictions of recession, and war in both Ukraine and the Middle East.

The strengthening of employer sentiment in October reflected brightening views of both the U.S. and Massachusetts economies. The nation’s economy grew at a brisk 4.9% rate in the third quarter, while Massachusetts maintained a record low unemployment rate of 2.6%. At the same time, financial markets weakened, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones falling during October to post their first three-month losing streaks since 2020.

“Rapid increases in consumer and government spending continue to fuel the economy, suggesting the Federal Reserve may have to keep interest rates high for longer than it originally anticipated. A persistently tight labor market is exerting upward pressure on wages, leaving price inflation uncomfortably high,” said Sara Johnson, chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA).

The Central Massachusetts Business Confidence Index, conducted with the Worcester Regional Chamber of Commerce, fell from 46.9 to 45.7. The North Shore Confidence Index, conducted with the North Shore Chamber of Commerce, rose from 53.5 to 54.2. The Western Massachusetts Business Confidence Index, developed in collaboration with the Springfield Regional Chamber, also gained ground, from 52.5 to 54.1.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index were mostly higher during October. The confidence employers have in their own companies gained 0.2 point to 51.9, ending the month 1.7 points down from October 2022.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth increased by 3.2 points to 53.6, leaving it up 3.0 points from a year earlier. The U.S. Index measuring conditions throughout the country ended the month at 46.7, which is 3.8 points higher than a year ago.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, rose 1.3 points points to 52.2. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, was up 1.5 points to move into optimistic territory at 50.1.

The Manufacturing Index lost 1.2 points to 48.5, falling 2.2 points below its level of a year ago. Confidence among non-manufacturing companies was up 2.3 points to 52.1. The Employment Index fell 1.8 points to 50.1. Large companies (50.9) were slightly more optimistic than medium-sized companies (50.5) and small companies (50.5).

Alan Clayton-Matthews, professor emeritus of Economics and Public Policy at Northeastern University, senior contributing editor at MassBenchmarks, and a BEA member, said the Massachusetts and U.S. economies have so far defied expectations of a slowdown, but all indications are that growth can be expected to slow in the coming months.

“Unemployment in Massachusetts remains at record lows, but we hear anecdotally from some companies in the survey that they have been able to find more qualified workers than they did a year ago. Massachusetts must still reckon with the structural demographic, educational, and other factors that will affect labor supply in the long term,” he noted.

AIM President Brooke Thomson, also a BEA member, said the Healey administration’s recent $4 billion proposal to address the critical shortage of housing in Massachusetts will create economic benefits for employers and workers alike.

“Virtually every employer in Massachusetts has at one time heard a valued employee say, ‘I love working for this company, but my family can’t afford a house here,’” she noted. “AIM looks forward to working with the Healey-Driscoll administration and the Legislature to ensure those conversations become a thing of the past.”

BOSTON — Business confidence remained flat during June amid a resilient economy, stubborn inflation, a pause by the Federal Reserve, and a shortage of workers across almost every industry.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index gained 0.1 point to 49.7, just below the 50 mark that separates optimistic from pessimistic outlooks. Confidence ended the month 1.1 points lower than a year earlier.

The mixed reading reflects an economy that continues to defy expectations in the face of 10 interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve. The Fed paused rate increases last month as inflation moderated to 4%, but more hikes are likely since the Fed’s target inflation rate is 2%.

Though many national economists believe a recession remains probable, the Massachusetts job market remains strong, with the unemployment rate dropping to 2.8% in May.

“As 2023 reached its midpoint, we experienced a tech-fueled stock-market rally instead of the recession many economists believe is inevitable,” said Sara Johnson, chair of AIM’s Board of Economic Advisors (BEA). “Employers tell us that, even though they worry about rising prices, they also remain desperate to find workers in a tight labor market.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative. The Western Massachusetts Business Confidence Index, developed in collaboration with the Springfield Regional Chamber of Commerce, was unchanged in June at 45.7.

The statewide constituent indicators that make up the Index were mixed in a narrow range during June. The confidence employers have in their own companies edged up 0.1 point to 51.9, ending the month 4.1 points less than June 2022.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth fell 0.2 point to 49.5, leaving it up 2.3 points from a year earlier. The U.S. Index measuring conditions throughout the country gained 0.8 point to 43.4, remaining in pessimistic territory for a ninth consecutive month.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, fell 0.6 points to 50.7. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, gained 0.9 point to end the month at 48.7.

The Manufacturing Index dropped 0.8 point to 45.7, ending the month 3.6 points lower than a year ago. Confidence among non-manufacturing companies was up 0.3 points to 52.1. The Employment Index gained 0.4 point to 51.2. Small companies (51.2) were slightly more optimistic than large companies (49.6) and medium-sized companies (48.5).

Marcelo Suárez-Orozco, chancellor of UMass Boston and a member of the BEA, said the presence of a worker shortage even in a slowing economy underscores the importance of educational institutions preparing the next generation of employees, especially the fast-growing demographic of immigrant-origin students.

“The only group growing enrollments in higher education is immigrant origin students — and they are projected to be the primary group driving growth of the U.S. labor market into 2035. They play a particularly important role in the science, technology, engineering, and math sector of the economy,” Suárez-Orozco said.

AIM President and CEO John Regan, a BEA member, said employers have been encouraged by the fact that all three elements of Massachusetts state government — Gov. Maura Healey, the House of Representatives, and the Senate — have passed versions of tax reform. Tax changes are expected to improve the Commonwealth’s economic competitiveness while also helping individuals struggling with rising costs for food, housing, and other staples.

“The governor and the House are wisely seeking tax changes that will improve our economic climate that has seen tens of thousands of Massachusetts residents leave the state in recent years,” Regan said. “We look forward to the final version of tax relief from the conference committee.”

BOSTON — The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) board of directors approved a long-planned leadership transition under which President and CEO John Regan will step down at the end of 2023 and be succeeded by Chief Government Affairs Executive Brooke Thomson.

To support a smooth transition, Regan will remain in the CEO role through the end of the year, and Thomson will begin as president effective immediately.

“When the board appointed John to lead AIM, we charged him with assuring that the organization’s initiatives were guided by member priorities and building a team that could support AIM’s continued evolution in a rapidly changing environment. John not only accomplished the goals the board set out for him, but also supported members addressing the unexpected challenges created by the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Patricia Begrowicz, AIM board chair and president of Onyx Specialty Papers.

At the time of his appointment, both Regan and the board prioritized building a strong leadership team and succession plan.

“John and the board determined that the end of 2023 was the right time for an internal transition in leadership,” Begrowicz said. “We are fortunate to have a leader of Brooke’s caliber and proven track record ready to advance to the position of president and CEO.  We are confident that she will build upon AIM’s many strengths in the role.”

During his tenure, in tandem with the leadership team and board, Regan, 62, has guided AIM’s public-policy work, served as a voice for the employer community, expanded the award-winning AIM HR Solutions business, built a comprehensive team with the skills necessary to support AIM’s 3,400 member organizations, made AIM a leader on diversity, and assured that members had access to timely support during the pandemic. He plans to pursue new opportunities as a consultant, advisor, and board member.

“AIM has been my professional home for more than 20 years; I could not be prouder of what our team has accomplished both with, and on behalf of, our members,” he said. “Collectively, we have advocated for policies and investments that assure the Commonwealth remains competitive in a global marketplace and that give companies the tools necessary to be employers of choice. I am confident that AIM is in outstanding hands with Brooke, our great team of senior leaders and professionals, and a committed board of directors.”

Before joining AIM’s leadership team more than four years ago, Thomson, 44, was a member of the AIM board. In her current role, she has been responsible for designing and advancing AIM’s policy agenda and strengthening relationships with elected officials and business leaders on Beacon Hill and throughout the Commonwealth, while ensuring that employer needs are represented at every level of the public-policy-making process.

Thomson is committed to expanding the progress AIM has made in diversifying its membership, reflecting statewide business-community needs, and advancing policies that support both economic competitiveness and economic opportunity for the people of Massachusetts. She previously served as vice president of Government Affairs for AT&T and is a former senior official with the Massachusetts Attorney General’s Office.

BOSTON — Massachusetts employers turned pessimistic about the economy for the first time since December 2020 last month as the state economy slowed to a crawl and the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index lost a half-point to 49.6 in May, just below the 50 mark that separates optimistic from pessimistic outlooks. Confidence ended the month 5.1 points lower than a year earlier.

The survey was largely completed before President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy struck a deal to raise the nation’s debt ceiling and avert a U.S. default.

“MassBenchmarks reports that the Massachusetts economy was essentially flat in the first quarter, growing at a 0.1% annual rate versus 1.1% for the nation. Employer confidence is reflecting that slowdown,” said Alan Clayton-Matthews, professor emeritus of Economics and Public Policy at Northeastern University. “At the same time, payroll employment remained strong in the first quarter, and unemployment rates remained low at 3.3% in April.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The Central Massachusetts Business Confidence Index, conducted with the Worcester Regional Chamber of Commerce, rose slightly from 50.3 to 50.4. The North Shore Confidence Index, conducted with the North Shore Chamber of Commerce, increased from 48.2 to 50.5. The Western Massachusetts Business Confidence Index, developed in collaboration with the Springfield Regional Chamber, fell to 45.7.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index were mostly lower in May. The confidence employers have in their own companies fell 1.4 points to 51.8, ending the month 6.8 points below May 2022.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth rose 1.1 points to 49.7, down 4.1 from a year earlier. The U.S. Index measuring conditions throughout the country gained 0.2 points to 42.6, remaining in pessimistic territory for an eighth consecutive month.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, fell 0.2 points to 51.3. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, lost 1.0 point to end the month at 47.8.

The Manufacturing Index dropped 2.2 points to 46.5, leaving it 8.0 points lower than a year ago. Confidence among non-manufacturing companies was up 0.7 points to 51.8. The Employment Index fell 0.8 points to 50.8. Large companies (50.8) were slightly more optimistic than medium-sized companies (50.2) and small companies (48.9).

Michael Tyler, chief investment officer at Eastern Bank Wealth Management and vice chair of the BEA, noted that “businesses have been stung by both stubbornly high inflation and persistently high interest rates, which have dampened demand and raised costs. It’s unfortunately not surprising that the Future Index indicates that business leaders expect these conditions to worsen further. Thankfully, a possible recession would likely be shallow and short, cushioned by a strong jobs market and healthy consumer spending.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, a BEA member, added that employers will likely be encouraged in the coming months by the ability of Congress and the White House to reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling.

“The President and Congress did the right thing in hammering out an agreement that will maintain the stability of the global financial system,” Regan said. “Employers need all the predictability they can get as the economy continues to slow down.”

BOSTON — Massachusetts employer attitudes toward the economy shifted from optimistic to neutral during April amid concerns about the banking sector and continued interest-rate increases designed to slow inflation.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index lost 1.4 points to 50.1 last month, its lowest level since December 2020. Confidence was 8.0 points lower than a year ago and essentially even with the 50 mark that separates optimistic from pessimistic outlooks.

The Western Massachusetts Business Confidence Index, developed in collaboration with the Springfield Regional Chamber of Commerce, rose to 55.4.

Employers are seeing signs of slowing business activity after 10 consecutive interest-rate increases from the Federal Reserve. Another sign of that slowdown came last week when Massachusetts officials reported that corporate and business tax collections fell 3.0% in April from the same month in 2022. And tightening credit conditions pose downside risks to the region’s commercial real-estate market.

“Businesses report that some customers are postponing buying decisions as they evaluate whether the economy is headed for a soft landing or a recession. At the same time, however, the report that U.S. employers created 253,000 jobs in April shows that the employment market continues to defy the gravity of any slowdown,” said Sara Johnson, chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA).

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index were mostly lower in March. The confidence employers have in their own companies fell 2.4 points to 53.2, ending the month 6.8 points below April 2022.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth lost 0.7 points to 48.6, down 8.7 from a year earlier. The U.S. Index measuring conditions throughout the country rose 1.4 points to 42.4 but remained in pessimistic territory for a seventh consecutive month.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, fell 1.4 points to 51.5. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, lost 1.2 points to end the month at 48.8.

The Manufacturing Index edged down 0.2 points to 48.7. Confidence among non-manufacturing companies was down 2.2 points to 51.1.

The Employment Index fell 3.2 points to 51.6, potentially signaling some easing of a persistently tight labor market.

Large companies (51.9) were slightly more optimistic than small companies (50.8) or medium-sized companies (49.0).

Barry Bluestone, retired Professor of Public Policy and Urban Affairs at Northeastern University and a BEA member, said the mixed economic signals should not distract Massachusetts from addressing the important long-term workforce issues facing its economy.

“Massachusetts will ultimately succeed by ensuring that the workers who drive growth have the skills needed by the economy and have the opportunity to find housing that allows them to remain here in the commonwealth,” Bluestone said.

AIM President and CEO John Regan, a BEA member, said employers are also increasingly concerned about the standoff between the White House and Congress about raising the debt ceiling.

“Employers may disagree about federal spending, but no one disagrees that hitting the debt limit will cause significant economic damage,” Regan said. “The members of AIM join others in calling upon elected officials to set aside their disagreements and find a solution.”

BOSTON — Business confidence fell precariously close to pessimistic territory during March as Massachusetts employers managed challenges ranging from inflation to rising interest rates to banking disruptions.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index lost 2.0 points to 51.5 last month, its lowest level since October. The confidence level was 5.7 points lower than a year ago and just marginally higher than the 50.0 mark that separates optimistic from pessimistic.

Employer sentiment continues to be driven by mixed economic signals. While the outlook for U.S. real economic growth has improved over the past three months on some stronger-than-expected early-2023 data, including strong demand for labor, most economists still expect growth to decelerate as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates to moderate inflation.

“At the global level, we see recession averted, thanks to solid growth in mainland China and the emerging markets of Asia Pacific,” said Sara Johnson, chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA). “The U.S. economy had a strong start to 2023, but tightening financial conditions could undermine growth over the remainder of the year. Labor-market conditions remain tight, keeping inflation above central bank targets in the U.S. and Western Europe.”

The new Western Massachusetts Business Confidence Index, developed in collaboration with the Springfield Regional Chamber of Commerce, debuted at 50.0. The Central Massachusetts Business Confidence Index, conducted with the Worcester Regional Chamber of Commerce, fell 1.9 points to 52.1, while the North Shore Confidence Index, conducted with the North Shore Chamber of Commerce, was also unchanged at 54.9.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index were all lower in March. The confidence employers have in their own companies fell 0.1 points to 55.6, ending the month 4.6 points below March 2022.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth lost 4.1 points to 49.3, down 6.3 from a year earlier. The U.S. Index measuring conditions throughout the country declined 6.1 points points to 41.0 for its sixth consecutive month in pessimistic territory.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, fell 1.6 points to 52.9. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, lost 2.5 points to end the month at the neutral mark of 50.0.

The Manufacturing Index slid 0.6 points to 49.5. Confidence among non-manufacturing companies was down 2.8 points to 53.3. The Employment Index edged down 0.3 points to 54.8 as companies continued to scour a tight labor market for qualified workers. Large companies (53.0) were slightly more optimistic than small companies (52.4) or medium-sized companies (50.4).

Suzanne Dwyer, president of the Massachusetts Capital Resource Company and a BEA member, said rapid action by regulators in the U.S. and Europe to limit the damage from the failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Signature Bank, and Credit Suisse appears to have stabilized the financial markets.

“The action by the Federal Reserve to insure all deposits at Silicon Valley Bank was particularly important here in Massachusetts, where significant numbers of technology and bioscience companies did business with SVB,” Dwyer said.

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said supplier diversity is an important element to ensuring continued economic growth in Massachusetts. AIM Business Connect, the association’s initiative to link minority-owned businesses with companies seeking to diversify their supply spends, has already brokered a dozen business relationships.

“I was warned early on that it is hard work, and that has proven to be prophetic. But that doesn’t mean you don’t do the work,” Regan said. “We tried to emphasize that they don’t have to be extremely large contracts. They could be simple, [like] catering, developing marketing material, landscaping or janitorial, things that are the day-to-day needs of a business.”

BOSTON — Business confidence remained essentially flat during February as employers attempted to gauge whether inflation, recession, growth, or labor shortages would dominate the Massachusetts economy in 2023.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index gained 0.3 points to 53.5 last month, halting a two-month slide. The confidence level was 3.2 points lower than a year ago but still in optimistic territory.

Employer sentiment continues to be driven by a swirl of often contradictory economic signals. Leading indicators suggest that economic growth will decelerate during 2023, yet the state and national economies continue to exhibit a strong labor market, low unemployment, and a persistently high rate of inflation.

In January, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge rose at its fastest monthly pace since June, a sign that price pressures remain entrenched in the U.S. economy to a degree that could lead the Fed to keep raising interest rates well into this year.

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index were mixed during February. The confidence employers have in their own companies fell 0.8 points to 55.7, ending the month 2.9 points below February 2022.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth jumped 3.2 points to 53.4, still down 4.3 points from a year earlier. The U.S. Index measuring conditions throughout the country gained 0.4 points to 47.1 for its fifth consecutive month in pessimistic territory.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, fell 1.1 points to 54.5. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, gained 1.6 points to end the month at 52.5.

The Manufacturing Index tumbled 1.3 points to enter pessimistic range at 49.5. Confidence among non-manufacturing companies rose to 56.1. The Employment Index edged down 1.2 points to 55.1 as companies continued to scour a tight labor market for qualified workers. Small companies (54.8) were slightly more optimistic than large companies (54.3) or medium-sized companies (51.0).

Katherine Kiel, professor of Economics at the College of the Holy Cross and a BEA member, said the economy continues to defy predictions of a recession. “Consumer spending remains strong nationally, and the job market is still historically tight; Massachusetts payroll employment grew at an annual rate of 4.2% in the fourth quarter. At the same time, the fact that confidence among Massachusetts manufacturing companies has fallen into pessimistic territory is a matter of concern.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said the $859 million tax-relief proposal announced last week by Gov. Maura Healey represents a positive step toward making Massachusetts more affordable and competitive.

“At a time when the cost of living in Massachusetts exceeds most other states, this package wisely identifies ways to help residents cut costs, reducing the financial burden on working families, while at the same time implementing tax changes that prevent Massachusetts from being an outlier,” Regan said. “Based on this budget, it is clear that the administration shares AIM’s concerns about the Commonwealth’s competitive future, and this is a critical first step toward ensuring sustained growth and economic strength.”

BOSTON — A strong performance by the Massachusetts economy during the fourth quarter of 2022 was not enough to stem a two-month decline in business confidence among employers still concerned about a slowdown in 2023.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index lost 0.8 point to 53.2 during January. The Index began the new year 2.7 points lower than its level of January 2022 but still at a level that signals overall optimism.

Employers remain wary even though the Massachusetts economy grew at a 3.1% annual rate and the U.S. economy grew at a 2.9% annual rate during the fourth quarter. Companies are concerned that efforts by central banks to moderate inflation by raising interest rates might push the economy into recession.

At the same time, labor remains in tight supply despite high-profile layoffs at technology companies. U.S. employers added a staggering half-million jobs in January, and job vacancies remain at historic highs, with two openings for every unemployed person.

“The good news is that 12-month consumer price inflation moderated to 6.5% in December from a high of 9.1% in June 2022,” said Sara Johnson, chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA). “However, measures of core inflation — excluding food and energy — remain well above rates that are consistent with the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. While the Fed slowed the pace of interest rate increases to just a quarter-point last week, it signaled that further rate hikes are coming.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index were mostly lower during January. The confidence employers have in their own companies fell 0.7 points to 56.5, ending the month 2.1 points below January 2022.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth declined 2.4 points to 50.2, down 5.1 points from a year earlier. The U.S. Index measuring conditions throughout the country gained half a point to 46.7 but remained in pessimistic territory for the fourth consecutive month.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, fell 0.1 points to 55.6. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, lost 1.5 points to end the month at 50.9.

The Manufacturing Index tumbled 4.5 point to 50.8 compared to a 54.8 reading among non-manufacturing companies. The Employment Index edged down 0.6 points to 56.3 as employers continued to scour a tight labor market for qualified workers. Large companies (53.9) were more optimistic that medium-sized companies (53.5) or small companies (52.1).

Michael Goodman, professor of Public Policy at UMass Dartmouth, noted that both the state and national economies ended 2022 on a strong note, but the outlook is for slowing growth in 2023.

“While the economic outlook is clouded by significant economic, national-policy, and geopolitical uncertainty — absent some unexpected negative development or ‘economic shock’ — the most probable trajectory for the national and state economy is for what Moody’s Analytics has described as a ‘slow-cession,’ a period of much slower growth in economic activity and employment,” Goodman said.

AIM President and CEO John Regan, a BEA member, said employers are encouraged that new Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey is committed to making the Commonwealth an attractive place to do business by addressing taxes, housing costs, and the shortage of workers.

“We face a unique challenge because workers in the post-COVID world are making different choices, many based on improving their quality of life,” Regan noted. “If workers and employers face skyrocketing housing, energy, and healthcare costs on top of transportation challenges and lack of child-care and elder-care support, they will begin to look to new locations to work and raise a family.”

BOSTON — Massachusetts employers ended a seesaw 2022 less confident in the economy than 12 months earlier, but nevertheless optimistic about their prospects in 2023.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index lost 4.7 points to 54.0 during December, giving up part of a large increase posted in November. The Index ended the year 2.7 points lower than its level of December 2021.

Employers remain concerned that efforts by central banks to moderate inflation by raising interest rates will slow the economy, perhaps into recession. At the same time, labor remains in tight supply, with many employers continuing to struggle to hire and retain employees.

“The path to 2% inflation will inevitably be painful. Most economists forecast a recession in the first half of 2023, led by declines in residential investment, commercial construction, inventory investment, and consumer spending on goods,” said Sara Johnson, chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA).

Participants in the Business Confidence Index survey reflected the shift in concern from rising prices to slowing growth. “I anticipate a recession in the second half of 2023, just beyond the six-month window of the survey,” one employer wrote.

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index were uniformly lower during December. The confidence employers have in their own companies fell 5.6 points to 57.2, ending the month 2.7 points below December 2021.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth declined 3.6 points to 52.6, down 3.0 points from a year earlier. The U.S. Index measuring conditions throughout the country lost 2.4 points to 46.2 to remain in pessimistic territory for the third consecutive month.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, fell 5.0 points to 55.7. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, lost 4.2 points to end the month at 52.4.

The Manufacturing Index declined 1.0 point to 55.3, compared to a 53.5 reading among non-manufacturing companies. The Employment Index lost 2.8 points to 55.7 as employers continued to scour a tight labor market for qualified workers.

Medium-sized companies (56.1) were more optimistic than large companies (53.8) or small companies (51.1).

Nada Sanders, Distinguished Professor of Supply Chain Management at Northeastern University, said the global supply-chain interruptions that have exacerbated inflation are slowly easing.

“With financial conditions tightening, a deceleration in goods demand is enabling supply to catch up, relieving bottlenecks,” she said. “Earlier fears of component shortages led to an inventory buildup that can now be strategically scaled back. The rebalancing of supply and demand has relieved congestion at ports and brought down shipping rates. Nevertheless, caution is needed as many potential supply-chain interruptions remain on the horizon.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, a BEA member, said employer confidence varied widely during 2022 as the Federal Reserve attempted to harness inflation without sending the economy into recession.

“It was a year in which employers faced a multitude of challenges, from untangling supply systems and managing labor costs to retaining workers and processing new patterns of post-COVID customer behavior,” Regan said. “The good news is that Massachusetts remains well-positioned as a global center of technology and commerce and should be able to ride out an economic slowdown better than most states.”

BOSTON — Business confidence surged to a 14-month high during November as Massachusetts employers saw signs of growth despite inflation, persistent labor shortages, and passage of a new income tax that could affect thousands of Bay State businesses.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index gained 7.8 points to 58.7 to end the month comfortably within optimistic territory. The Index is now at its highest level since September 2021 and 0.8 points better than a year ago.

Economists cautioned against reading too much into monthly changes to the Index, but said the numbers provide some evidence that the Massachusetts economy appears to be riding out the broader national economic slowdown.

“Friday’s report that U.S. employers added 263,000 jobs during November underscores a continued demand for workers despite the Federal Reserve’s push to increase interest rates. Even though interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate have slowed, employers remain remarkably confident in the prospects of their own companies,” said Sara Johnson, chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA). “Industrial commodity prices have fallen by one-third from their early March peak, so manufacturers are seeing significant easing of cost pressures. Continued slow growth in China is also helping to reduce energy prices. Businesses may see light at the end of the tunnel and are focusing on market growth and investment opportunities beyond 2023.”

Participants in the Business Confidence Index survey reflected the balance of optimism and challenge faced by employers. “I anticipate a ramp-up in bid opportunities with the federal infrastructure bill passing,” one participant wrote.

Another commented that “costs continue to be a major challenge, specifically in energy, utilities, health insurance, general insurance, overhead. Demand is steady, but it’s difficult to contain costs and maintain growth in profitability.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index were mostly higher during November. The confidence employers have in their own companies rose 9.2 points to 62.8, ending the month 1.2 points better than in November 2021.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth gained 5.6 points to 56.2, down 1.1 points from a year earlier. The U.S. Index measuring conditions throughout the country rose 5.7 points but remained in pessimistic territory at 48.6.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, increased 8.2 points to 60.7. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, gained 7.4 points to end the month at 56.6.

The Manufacturing Index rose 5.6 points to 56.3 compared to a 53.8 reading for non-manufacturing businesses. The Employment Index rose 5.2 points to 58.5 as employers continued to scour a tight labor market for qualified workers. Large companies (58.0) were more optimistic than medium-sized companies (54.0) and small companies (52.6).

Elmore Alexander, dean emeritus at Ricciardi College of Business, Bridgewater State University, and a BEA member, said employers were encouraged by the results of the November midterm elections, which left the federal government divided and thus more predictable.

“That, coupled with a belief that, while sticking to its guns, the Fed is moderating interest-rate hikes, portends a positive economic outlook,” Alexander said.

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, noted that the widespread concern among employers about the effect of the new income surtax means Massachusetts must redouble its efforts to make itself an attractive place to work and live.

“Behaviors around workforce are changing. Businesses can now draw talent from throughout the country and hire workers who live in lower-cost states. Businesses themselves can locate and invest elsewhere with greater ease and flexibility than in the past. These decisions by businesses and workers alike about where to locate is often spurred by a desire to reduce costs while retaining a good quality of life,” Regan said.

“We used to think about a state’s economic health in terms of competitiveness. Though previous notions of competitiveness are still relevant, it is important that we engage in a more expansive discussion about what constitutes economic health. This more expansive view includes conversations around whether a state is an attractive place to locate, live, pursue a career, raise a family, and buy a home.”

BOSTON — Confidence among Massachusetts employers weakened for a second consecutive month during October as rising interest rates began to take a toll on key economic sectors such as housing, finance, and technology.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index lost 3.0 points to 50.9, barely within the range that defines an optimistic outlook. The Index is now at its lowest level since June and 7.5 points short of its level a year ago.

The slide in confidence came as the Federal Reserve increased interest rates another three-quarters of a percentage point in an effort to control inflation. And though the Massachusetts economy grew at a 0.5% annualized rate during the third quarter, the Commonwealth also saw a slowdown in job growth and a decline in the labor force.

“Consumers continue to cautiously increase their spending, but we are starting to see higher interest rates adversely affect housing markets and related purchases such as furniture and appliances. Rising interest rates are also affecting the technology sector through constraints on the supply of venture capital and private investment funding,” said Sara Johnson, chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA).

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index were mostly lower during October.
The confidence employers have in their own companies fell 1.3 points to 53.6, ending the month 7.6 points lower than in October 2021. The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth, gained 3.1 points to 50.6, down 7.4 points from a year earlier. The U.S. Index measuring conditions throughout the country fell into pessimistic territory at 42.9.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, decreased 2.5 points to 52.5. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, lost 3.5 points to end the month at 49.2.

The Manufacturing Index rose 1.6 points to 50.7, virtually identical to the 50.9 reading for non-manufacturing businesses. The Employment Index rose 1.6 points to 50.7 as employers continue to struggle to hire and retain talent.

Large companies (52.9) were more optimistic than medium-sized companies (51.5) and small companies (49.1).

Suzanne Dwyer, president of Massachusetts Capital Resource Co. and a BEA member, said companies are again hungry for capital after a period of consolidating debt following the COVID-19 pandemic.

AIM President and CEO John R. Regan, also a BEA member, said the workforce challenges facing employers may be more dire than anyone imagined. He noted that a survey released by MassINC this summer concludes that the working-age college-educated population of Massachusetts will decline by 10%, or 192,000 people, by 2030.

“Many AIM member businesses don’t need a survey to tell them what they already know: that labor shortages and lack of qualified talent, exacerbated by the impact of the COVID-19, have dealt a major blow to day-to-day operations,” he noted. “Our members across all industries are unable to fill positions with qualified candidates, and the Commonwealth is losing workers to lower-cost states.”

BOSTON — Confidence among Massachusetts employers weakened slightly last month amid growing economic storm clouds both nationally and in Massachusetts.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index lost 1.4 points to 53.9, its lowest level since June. The Index now rests 5 points lower than its level of a year ago.

The decrease reflects the swirl of contradictory elements roiling the economy — surging inflation, rising interest rates, and shrinking economic output on the one hand and a persistently strong demand for workers on the other.

The September survey responses came as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates another three-quarters of a point on Sept. 21 and the financial markets closed out their worst month since March 2020.

“Companies remain concerned about inflation, the cost of borrowing, and the potential for a recession, but their primary concern remains finding the employees they need to enable growth and maintain operations. Many businesses have been able to increase product prices to compensate for rising costs and have thus sustained or increased their payrolls,” said Sara Johnson, chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA).

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index were mostly lower during September. The confidence employers have in their own companies declined 3.6 points to 54.9, ending the month 5.8 points lower than in September 2021. The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth dipped into pessimistic territory by losing 6.6 points to 47.5. The U.S. Index measuring conditions throughout the country surged 10.3 points to 57.1, leaving it 4.6 points better than in September 2021.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, lost 1.4 points to 55.0. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, fell 1.5 points to 52.7.

The Manufacturing Index rose tumbled 7.4 points to 49.1, well below the 59.2 reading for non-manufacturing businesses. Medium-sized companies (58.0) were more optimistic than small companies (51.5) or large companies (52.0).

Katherine Kiel, professor of Economics at the College of the Holy Cross and a BEA member, said employer confidence is being shadowed by uncertainty during the second half of 2022.

“Business owners and CEOs find themselves amid a swirl of trends that include the post-COVID recovery, a tight job market, healthy consumer spending, rising prices, increased borrowing costs, and even the prospect of a pandemic resurgence during the winter,” Kiel said. “Lurking behind all of these issues, the Conference Board forecasts that economic weakness will intensify and spread more broadly throughout the U.S. economy in the second half of 2022 and expects a recession to begin before the end of the year.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said Massachusetts employers remain hopeful that the Massachusetts Legislature will pass some version of an economic-development bill that was shelved on Aug. 1 as lawmakers attempted to digest the fiscal impacts a $3 billion tax rebate heading for taxpayers in November.

“The economic development bill includes key provisions for employers, including recapitalization of the Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund and reform to the estate tax,” Regan said. “AIM continues to work with the Legislature to find a way to enact this important piece of legislation.”

BOSTON — Resurgent COVID-19 disruptions, persistent supply-chain issues, and a slowing state economy pushed confidence among Massachusetts employers to a 10-month low at the end of 2021.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index declined 1.2 points to 56.7 in December. The Index remains within optimistic territory, 7.4 points better than a year ago, but has now declined for five consecutive months.

Employers remain upbeat about the fundamental strength of the economy, but their confidence is muted by the evolving public-health crisis, rising prices, and a structural labor shortage.

“The December Business Confidence Index reflects companies attempting to maintain operations and grow business amid the sudden spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. Travel, healthcare, hospitality, and other service industries began to experience increased employee absences in an already-tight labor market,” said Sara Johnson, chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA) and executive director of Global Economics at IHS Markit.

Inflation remains a major concern for Massachusetts companies. “Our inability to predict where material costs will be three to six months from now is a terrible burden on our business and our bottom line,” wrote one survey participant.

The Massachusetts economy, which grew at a 6.1% annual clip during the first quarter of 2021 and 8% during the second quarter, slowed to a 2% annual growth rate during the July-September period, according to MassBenchmarks.

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index were mostly lower during December. The confidence employers have in their own companies slid 1.2 points to 59.9, leaving it 6.8 points better than it was a year ago. The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth declined 1.7 points to 55.6, up 7.2 points since December 2020. The U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally shed 0.9 points in December to remain in pessimistic territory at 47.9.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, lost 1.6 points to 56.1. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, declined 0.8 points to 57.3

The Manufacturing Index was the only indicator to rise during the month, gaining 2.1 points to 55.3. The Employment Index lost 0.6 points to 55.6.

Medium-sized companies (58.9) were more bullish than large companies (57.5) or small companies (53.5).

Katherine Kiel, professor of Economics at the College of the Holy Cross and a BEA member, said companies are struggling to budget for 2022 because inflation has reached a 30-year high of 6.8% nationally.

“Commodity prices remain volatile, and companies report that supply-chain delays on key components continue to slow project schedules,” she noted. “Wage inflation is also playing a role as employers work hard to hire and retain qualified workers across a range of industries.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said employers remain fundamentally optimistic about the economy at a time of both extraordinary hope and unprecedented uncertainty.

“We face an ever-mutating public-health crisis, a generational shortage of qualified workers, supply-chain disruptions, the highest inflation since the early 1990s, and shifting expectations about the nature of work itself,” Regan said. “Despite these challenges, however, many Massachusetts companies and their employees are finding ways to thrive. Many members of the AIM board of directors tell me their companies posted record results in both 2020 and 2021. And Massachusetts employers have created 519,500 jobs since the employment trough in April 2020, boosting the labor-force participation rate from 60.4% to 66.3%.”

BOSTON — Confidence among Massachusetts employers fell for a fourth consecutive month during November amid renewed COVID-19 concerns, supply-chain disruptions, and the highest rate of inflation in three decades.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index declined five-tenths of a point to 57.9 last month. The Index is now at its lowest level since March, though it remains 8.6% higher than a year ago.

Employer views of the U.S. economy turned pessimistic for the first time since January, while attitudes toward the Massachusetts economy also weakened slightly.

Overall confidence remains in optimistic territory. On the positive side, construction companies and other businesses involved in infrastructure work were buoyed by passage of the $1 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act signed by President Biden on Nov. 15.

Employers remain concerned about their ability to obtain parts and materials.

“The only way we can continue to grow is to have the supply-chain disruptions come to an end and to have the labor shortages ease. We have had to turn away potential customers due to the inability to ensure delivery times,” wrote one employer who participated in the confidence survey.

Another wrote that “supply-chain disruption is placing a lot of strain on our ability to service our customers. I really believe the supply-chain challenges will be with us well into the later part of 2022. It’s a mess.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index were mostly lower during November. The confidence employers have in their own companies was virtually flat at 61.1, leaving it 9.3 points better than it was a year ago.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth declined 0.7 points to 57.3, up 10 points since November 2020. The U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally shed 1.5 points in November to enter pessimistic territory at 48.8.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, lost 0.5 points to 57.7. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, declined 0.4 points.

The Employment Index was the only indicator to rise during the month, gaining 0.3 points to 56.2 as signs of a thaw began to appear in the labor market.

Large companies (56.4) were more bullish than medium-sized companies (53.6) or small companies (51.1). Companies located north of Boston (61.9) remained significantly more confident than those in other regions of the Commonwealth.

Michael Goodman, professor of Public Policy at UMass Dartmouth and a member of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA), said the Massachusetts Legislature’s newly approved distribution of federal stimulus money under the American Rescue Plan Act, combined with the rollout of substantial federal infrastructure investments, will add momentum to a state economy that slowed to a 2% annual growth rate in the third quarter.

“In addition to boosting growth in the near term, these federal funds will allow Massachusetts to address long-standing and critical challenges including job training, transportation, housing, and education,” Goodman said. “Wise public investments in these and other areas will position the state for more sustainable and equitable growth over the long term.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said employers will watch next year’s gubernatorial election carefully now that incumbent governor and business ally Charlie Baker has decided against running for a third term.

“Any change in the corner officer on Beacon Hill affects the confidence of Massachusetts employers,” Regan said. “Gov. Baker and Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito will leave a legacy of disciplined fiscal management and policies that have allowed Massachusetts to remain a pre-eminent center of technology and commerce. From massive regulatory reform to leading the Commonwealth through the COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. Baker has employed what he calls his ‘get stuff done’ approach to create economic opportunity and prosperity for the citizens of Massachusetts.”

BOSTON — Confidence among Massachusetts employers drifted lower during October, dampened by a slowing state economy and a persistent labor shortage.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index declined five-tenths of a point to 58.4 last month. The Index remains 12.2 points higher than a year ago but now sits at its lowest level since March.

Employers grew less optimistic about both the state and national economies amid concerns about rising labor costs and supply-chain interruptions. Companies also face uncertainty about taxes and federal spending as Congress and President Biden struggle to hammer out infrastructure and social-spending bills.

The confidence reading comes as MassBenchmarks reported that economic growth in Massachusetts slowed to an annualized rate of 2.0% in the third quarter from 6.7% in the second.

“Employer confidence has been unsettled by a multitude of factors ranging from the continued presence of COVID-19 to product shortages to the exodus of people from the workforce. At the same time, employer confidence in the prospects for their own companies strengthened during October, especially among manufacturing companies,” said Sara Johnson, chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA) and executive director of Global Economics at IHS Markit.

The inability to hire qualified workers remains foremost on the minds of Massachusetts employers. “It’s almost impossible to hire help and for them to stay,” wrote one participant in the business-confidence survey.

“We would be hiring more help if we could find them,” commented another.

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index were mixed during October. The confidence employers have in their own companies rose 0.5 points to 61.2, leaving it 11.9 points better than it was a year ago.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth declined 2.0 points to 58.0, up 15.1 points since October 2020. The U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally shed 2.2 points in October and gained 10.1 points for the year.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, lost 1.5 points to 58.2. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, increased 0.4 points.

Confidence among manufacturing companies gained 2.2 points to end the month 15.9 points higher than a year earlier.

Large companies (61.0) were more bullish than medium-sized companies (56.5) or small companies (57.1). Companies in Eastern Mass. (63.2) remained significantly more confident than those in Western Mass. (52.8).

Nada Sanders, distinguished professor of Supply Chain Management at Northeastern University and a BEA member, said the October confidence survey underscores the frustration that companies are feeling from worldwide supply-chain problems.

“Companies responding to the survey say that supply-chain problems and surging prices for key materials are constraining their operations and growth,” Sanders said. “Consumers are being affected as well as we move into the holiday season. Many people are not going to be able to get the goods that they want by the usual holiday time. Lead times are extremely long, and there are massive shortages and price hikes.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said a proposal last week by the Massachusetts House of Representatives to invest $500 million into the unemployment-insurance system represents a modest first step to addressing the staggering $7 billion debt in the fund used to pay jobless benefits.

“Employers face potentially crippling long-term rate increases to pay down a deficit caused by a public-health emergency beyond their control,” Regan noted. “Employers appreciate the House Ways and Means Committee’s commitment of $500 million, but AIM believes the Legislature must provide additional resources if the Commonwealth’s economic recovery is to continue.”

BOSTON — Confidence among Massachusetts employers rose to its highest level in more than three years last month as the state and national economies continued to expand despite renewed COVID-19 outbreaks.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index marked its 30th anniversary in July by rising 2.2 points to 65.6, some 20 points higher than a year ago.

The increase was driven by a strong outlook among manufacturers and a brightening assessment by all employers of current economic conditions.

Those conditions included an estimated 6.2% annualized growth in Massachusetts real GDP during the second quarter and a 6.5% annualized surge nationally as federal stimulus dollars and the availability of COVID vaccines stoked the economic recovery. The Massachusetts economy had grown at a 6.9% annual clip in the first quarter.

The Massachusetts unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in June as employers created 9,400 jobs.

“Every component of the Business Confidence Index rose during July, from employer assessments of their own business prospects to their hiring plans. Employers see the recovery gaining momentum despite the presence of the Delta variant of COVID-19. With the reopening of the Massachusetts economy, consumer spending is proving its resilience,” said Sara Johnson, chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA) and executive director of Global Economics at IHS Markit.

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index were all positive during July. The confidence employers have in their own companies rose 3.0 points to 67.7, leaving it 20 points better than it was during the depths of the pandemic a year ago.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth increased 2.4 points to 66.0, up 17.2 points since July 2020. The U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally gained 0.1 point in July and 21.8 points for the year.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, gained 3.3 points to 66.6. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, rose 1.3 points.

Confidence among manufacturing companies increased 3.9 points to settle 18.1 points higher than its year-earlier level. Large companies (70.6) were more bullish than medium-sized companies (65.5) or small companies (59.1). Companies in Eastern Mass. (69.2) were significantly more confident than those in Western Mass. (61.7).

Alan Clayton-Matthews, professor emeritus of Economics and Public Policy at Northeastern University and a BEA member, said the American Rescue Plan Act and expansionist monetary policy continue to stimulate consumer demand and hiring by employers.

“Economic growth is expected to remain strong in the second half of the year, but there is a risk that rising COVID-19 Delta-variant cases could slow the recovery,” Clayton-Matthews said.

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said the $1 trillion infrastructure bill moving through Congress should allow Massachusetts to make significant new investments in transportation, utilities, and power infrastructure. The bill contains $550 billion in physical infrastructure spending.

“Roads, bridges, power-delivery systems, and transportation are key elements of sustainable business growth,” Regan said. “The proposed spending plan will be another pillar of the recovery and has the added advantage of being funded by reallocating existing federal resources with no additional taxes.”

BOSTON — Karen Wallace has joined Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) as executive vice president of Marketing. She will develop and lead strategies to support expansion of the association and implement AIM’s belief that business can be a positive force for change in creating a better, more prosperous Commonwealth.

A native of Springfield, Wallace was most recently a consultant to Northeastern University Khoury College of Computer Sciences, the Northeastern University College of Professional Studies, and the Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum. She previously spent more than 20 years in marketing positions at Fidelity Investments, including as senior vice president of Marketing, Communications, and Branding. She has also held senior marketing positions at MFS Investment Management and Sun Life. She brings a strong capacity for using data to drive marketing and business growth.

Wallace earned both a bachelor’s degree and an MBA from Simmons University in Boston. She has completed professional-development courses at MIT Sloan School, Harvard Business School, and Tuck School at Dartmouth College. She serves as a board member for the Boston Children’s Chorus and is a member of the National Black MBA Assoc. and Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority Inc.

BOSTON — Confidence among Massachusetts employers rose for the fifth time in six months during June amid signs that the recovery of the labor market is gaining momentum.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index rose 1.5 points to 63.4 last month, leaving it 14.4 points higher than a year ago. The increase was driven in part by the brightest assessment of the employment picture since April 2018. Hiring appears to be picking up after companies struggled for months with one of the tightest labor markets in decades.

Nationally, the government announced that U.S. employers added 850,000 jobs in June, well above the average of the previous three months and a sign that companies may be having an easier time finding enough workers to fill open jobs.

The Massachusetts unemployment rate fell to 6.1% during May as employers created 9,200 jobs. Massachusetts has gained an estimated 357,000 jobs during the past 12 months.

“The June Business Confidence Index and the most recent government reports suggest that hiring is accelerating as employers attract workers with higher pay. Wages nationally jumped 3.6% last month from a year ago,” said Sara Johnson, chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA) and executive director of Global Economics at IHS Markit. “At the same time, there are 6.8 million fewer jobs in the United States than before the pandemic, meaning we still have a long way to go in the employment recovery.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index were mostly positive during June. The Employment Index rose 2.5 points as companies finally began to locate workers to fill open jobs and boost output. The employment reading has increased by more than 11 points since June 2020.

The confidence employers have in their own companies rose slightly to 64.7, 13.1 points more than it was a year ago. The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth increased 2.9 points to 63.6, up 16.8 points since June 2020. The U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally gained 1.3 points in June and 15.2 points for the year.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, gained 3.0 points to 63.3. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, was almost flat, losing 0.1 point to 63.4. Confidence among manufacturing companies declined 0.8 points, but remained 11.5 points higher than its year-earlier level.

Large companies (66.4) were more bullish than medium-sized companies (62.0) or small companies (60.7). Companies in Eastern Mass. (67.1) were significantly more confident than those in Western Mass. (59.6)

Michael Tyler, CFA, vice chair of BEA and chief Investment officer at Eastern Bank Wealth Management, said the risk of sustained long-term inflation remains low despite the near-term upward pressure on wages and some commodities.

“There is some inflation, to be sure, but mostly it’s due to base effects (that is, low prices a year ago when lockdowns were in place) or supply-chain disruptions that can be resolved.,” he said. “Today’s inflation should not be misinterpreted as a fundamental shift in the current economic climate.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said the recent debate over whether the Massachusetts Legislature or Gov. Charlie Baker should control distribution of $5.3 billion in federal stimulus money from the American Rescue Plan Act should not obscure the importance of using some of the money to stabilize the unemployment-insurance system. The Legislature and governor froze unemployment-insurance rates and separately spread out an unexpected surge in solvency rates over the next 20 years.

“The unemployment system will still be burdened for decades by the fallout from COVID-19 and the economic shutdowns of 2020,” Regan said. “The one step that remains is for policymakers to use some of Massachusetts’ federal stimulus money to stabilize the unemployment system for the long term.”

BOSTON — An emerging economic recovery and good news about COVID-19 pushed business confidence slightly higher in Massachusetts during May.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index rose 1.2 points to 61.9 last month, leaving it almost 20 points higher than a year ago. Confidence levels remain comfortably in optimistic territory.

The increase was the fourth in five months and came as Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker announced the resumption of full business activity in the Commonwealth. The federal government also said vaccinated people no longer need to wear masks in most public settings.

Meanwhile, the Massachusetts unemployment rate fell to 6.5% during April as employers created 5,100 jobs. Massachusetts has gained an estimated 392,300 jobs since the nadir of the COVID crisis.

“Employers remain confident amid a state economy that is projected to grow at a 8.7% annual rate in the second quarter and 6.9% in the third quarter of this year,” said Sara Johnson, vice chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA) and executive director of Global Economics at IHS Markit. “The economy still faces challenges ranging from persistent worker shortages to global supply-chain disruptions, but there is a sense that we are returning to a more normal economic situation.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index were mostly positive during May. Employers’ confidence in their own companies posted its seventh increase in eight months, rising 2.2 points to 63.8. The Company Index was 18.1 points higher than it was a year ago.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth was 60.7, up 0.3 point for the month and 23.3 points since May 2020. The U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally lost 0.9 points in May but gained 21.6 points for the year.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, surged 3.7 points to 60.3. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, lost 1.3 points for the month at 63.5.

The Employment Index was flat at 56.9 as employers now able to open at full capacity confronted an acute shortage of qualified workers. A separate AIM survey last month revealed that 60% of employers currently have job openings, and 53% cannot find qualified workers to fill those vacancies.

Confidence among manufacturing companies increased 2.2 points, leaving it 19.3 points higher than its year-earlier level. Small companies (63.2) were more bullish than large companies (62.1) or medium-sized companies (60.9).

Katherine Kiel, professor of Economics at the College of the Holy Cross and a BEA member, said Baker’s decision to lift almost all COVID-related business restrictions will help public-facing industries that were most affected by the pandemic.

“The retail, hospitality, restaurant, and travel sectors that lost hundreds of thousands of jobs throughout Massachusetts last year now have the opportunity to bring back some of those jobs,” she noted. “At the same time, construction and other sectors are likely to benefit from federal stimulus dollars and a possible federal infrastructure bill.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said the economic recovery received an important shot in the arm last week when the Massachusetts Legislature and the Baker administration took multiple steps to stabilize an unemployment-insurance system battered by the COVID recession.

Baker signed legislation that will moderate an unexpected spike in unemployment-insurance taxes by spreading the levies over the next 20 years. The new measure, together with a previous UI rate freeze and the administration’s announcement that Massachusetts will reinstate the requirement that people who collect unemployment benefits must actively search for a job, aims to stabilize the stressed UI system in the short term and encourage people to return to the workforce.

“These were important steps to helping employers and workers alike get back on their feet and move the economy forward,” Regan said. “The one step that remains is for policymakers to use some of Massachusetts’ federal stimulus money to stabilize the unemployment system for the long term.”

SPRINGFIELD — Business confidence was virtually unchanged during April even as the Massachusetts economy surged with business reopenings, federal stimulus money, and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index fell 0.2 points to 60.7 last month after surging more than 10 points during the first quarter of 2021. The reading was 22.5 points higher than in April 2020 when pandemic-related business closures spread throughout the Commonwealth. Confidence levels remain comfortably in optimistic territory.

The April BCI came as MassBenchmarks reported that the state economy grew at a torrid 11.3% clip during the first three months of the year. Massachusetts employers created some 13,000 jobs during March, and the state unemployment rate fell to 6.8%.

“Employer confidence remains at a high level, and companies feel good about the underlying fundamentals of the economy,” said Raymond Torto, professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Design and chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA). “Confidence is even higher when employers look six months into the future, as they anticipate continued moderation of the public-health crisis.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index all moved in a narrow range during April. Employers’ confidence in their own companies fell 0.2 points after posting six consecutive monthly increases. The Company Index was 19.8 points higher than it was a year ago.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth was 60.4, down 0.2 points for the month but 25.9 points better than in April 2020. The U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally lost 0.2 points in April and gained 26.4 points for the year.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, slid a half-point to 56.6. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, was flat for the month at 64.8.

The Employment Index gained 1.1 points to end the month at 56.9, confirming the comments of many employers about the challenges of hiring and retaining skilled workers. A separate AIM survey last month revealed that 60% of employers currently have job openings, and 53% cannot find qualified workers to fill those vacancies.

Confidence among manufacturing companies remained steady at 59.5, leaving it 22.6 points higher than its year-earlier level.

Large companies (68.4) were more bullish than medium-sized companies (59.8) or small companies (54.6). Companies in Eastern Mass. (63.3) have a brighter outlook than those in Western Mass. (56.6).

Michael Goodman, acting provost and professor of Public Policy at UMass Dartmouth and a BEA member, said the strong growth of the Massachusetts economy during the first quarter is the result of federal fiscal policy that has boosted incomes and business and consumer spending, as well as rising vaccination levels. Both developments bode well for the Commonwealth’s economic outlook.

“The Future Index of the BCI is now almost 10 points higher than the Current Index, which sends a clear signal that Massachusetts employers anticipate a strong economic recovery,” Goodman said. “Absent some unexpected disruption to the vaccine rollout or the emergence of vaccine-resistant viral variants, we can expect our robust recovery to continue.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said employers are also encouraged by the Massachusetts Legislature’s disciplined fiscal approach so far in 2021.

“Senate President Karen Spilka and House Speaker Ronald Mariano have both indicated that they do not expect Beacon Hill to impose new, broad-based business taxes this year, and that sends a strong message that lawmakers are committed to helping companies get back on their feet after the pandemic,” Regan said. “We remain concerned about some of the tax proposals coming out of Washington and about the prospect of an income-tax surcharge here in Massachusetts, but we are working with our partners in government to maintain an economy that encourages growth and jobs.”

BOSTON — As the battle to moderate COVID-19 continues, Massachusetts employers have become enthusiastic about the direction of the economy.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index surged 4.5 points in March to 60.9, its highest level since the pandemic and consequent business restrictions went into effect a year ago.

Confidence levels have increased 11.6 points since December as COVID-19 vaccines have raised hopes for an end to the crisis and the federal government provided a $1.9 trillion stimulus injection.

The March reading was 20.7 points higher than it was last year at this time, when the initial wave of the pandemic sent the Index reeling with its largest one-month decline on record.

Massachusetts employers created 14,000 jobs during February, and the unemployment rate dropped 0.7% to 7.1%. Nationally, the government reported Friday that U.S. employers added 916,000 jobs during March, nearly double February’s gain of 468,000.

“Employers certainly remain concerned about COVID-19 variants and rising case numbers, but they are clearly bullish about the underlying strength of the Massachusetts and national economies,” said Raymond Torto, professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Design and chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA). “Several companies told the March survey that commodity prices and domestic demand are both increasing, signaling tentative steps toward recovery.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index were all higher for the third consecutive month in March. Every indicator is now well above 50 and resting comfortably in positive territory.

Employers’ confidence in their own companies rose 2.8 points to 61.8. It marked the sixth consecutive monthly increase for the Company Index.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth rose 6.1 points to 60.6. The U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally surged 8.3 points to 58.7, almost 27 points higher than it was in March 2020.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, was up 5.3 points to 57.1. The Future Index, measuring projections for the economy six months from now, reached its highest level since May 2018 at 64.8.

The Employment Index gained 1.2 points to 55.8, confirming the comments of many employers about the challenges of hiring and retaining skilled workers. The hiring issues come despite the fact that more than 300,000 Massachusetts residents remain without jobs more than a year into the public-health crisis.

Confidence among manufacturing companies climbed 3.3 points to 59.5 during March, leaving it 19.8 points better than its year-earlier level. Large companies (67.4) were more bullish than medium-sized companies (60.7) or small companies (54.6). Companies in Eastern Mass. (63.7) have a brighter outlook than those in Western Mass. (56.4).

Nada Sanders, distinguished professor of Supply Chain Management at Northeastern University and a BEA member, said the disruption last week at a company manufacturing the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, coupled with the resumption of lockdowns in key European countries, may moderate the optimism of employers.

“There are areas of the supply chain that were woefully unprepared for COVID-19. Retailers and suppliers, for example, built a supply-chain system that was too complex, in which the slightest crack down the line created a large ripple effect,” Sanders said. “Companies are now addressing those weaknesses, but the events of the past week, including the backup of the Suez Canal, may give employers pause.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said the Massachusetts Legislature’s vote last week to freeze unemployment-insurance rates and create a tax benefit for small companies that received a forgivable loan through the federal Paycheck Protection Program represented significant commitments to the economic recovery of the Commonwealth.

“Add to that the fact that Senate President Karen Spilka told the AIM Executive Forum on Friday that she does not support tax increases this year, and House Speaker Ronald Mariano’s similar statements several weeks ago, and employers are encouraged that lawmakers will maintain a positive environment for business growth in 2021,” Regan said.

BOSTON — The recovery of business confidence in Massachusetts picked up steam during February, driven by surging optimism among employers in their own company prospects and an increasingly bullish outlook among manufacturers.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index gained 4 points to 56.4 during a month marked by accelerating business reopenings and progress in the battle to moderate COVID-19.

The reading was 18 points higher than at the onset of the pandemic, but still 5.7 points shy of its level in February 2020. The Future Index portion of the BCI, which measures expectations for six months out, is now almost even with its reading of a year ago.

Massachusetts grew at a 7.9% annual rate in the fourth quarter, double the national pace. At the same time, the state unemployment stands at 7.4%, and hundreds of thousands of people remain out of work because of the public-health crisis.

“Business confidence has risen or remained steady in seven of the last nine months, giving Massachusetts the kind of measured optimism that will drive economic growth as the COVID-19 situation improves,” said Raymond Torto, professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Design and chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA).

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative. The Index reached its historic high of 68.5 on two occasions in 1997-98, and its all-time low of 33.3 in February 2009.

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index were all higher for the second consecutive month in February. Every indicator is now above 50 and in positive territory for the first time since the onset of the pandemic.

Employers’ confidence in their own companies rose 4.3 points to 59.0. It marked the fifth consecutive monthly increase for the Company Index.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth climbed comfortably into optimistic territory, gaining 4.2 points to 54.3. The U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally rose 2.7 points to 50.4.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, was up 3.4 points to 51.8. The Future Index increased 4.6 points to 61.0.

The Employment Index gained 3.0 points to 55.6, suggesting that cautious employers may be looking to expand payrolls as soon as pandemic-driven restrictions are eased. A growing number of employers are reporting challenges with hiring skilled workers despite the relatively high state unemployment rate.

Confidence among manufacturing companies climbed 5.1 points to 56.2 during February, leaving it 5.2 points below its year-earlier level.

Medium-sized companies (57.8) were more bullish than large companies (55.5) or small companies (55.0). Companies in Western Mass. (56.9) have a slightly brighter outlook than those in Eastern Mass. (55.9).

Elmore Alexander, retired dean of the Ricciardi College of Business at Bridgewater State University and a BEA member, said higher-than-expected tax revenues in Massachusetts and moderating COVID-19 case numbers support the strengthening of business confidence.

“Much of the economy appears poised for growth once the pandemic is under control,” he noted. “At the same time, there are major sectors such as travel, tourism, and hospitality that still face a steep climb after losing more than a third of their jobs in the past 12 months.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, noted that COVID-19 has had a devastating and potentially permanent impact on women in the workforce. The percentage of women participating in the U.S. labor market in October 2020 was the lowest since 1988, and of the 9.8 million jobs that have not yet returned, 55% belong to women.

“In one year, COVID-19 wiped out a generation of progress and put the precariousness of being a woman in the modern American workplace into stark perspective,” he said.

Associated Industries of Massachusetts is asking employers to alter their policies to help women and other caregivers remain on the job during the pandemic. Recommendations include providing pay increases and advancement steps to women caregivers on schedule rather than penalizing those who have been on leave or working limited hours, and extending the time workers can be on leave.

BOSTON — Massachusetts employers began 2021 by turning optimistic for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic shut down large swaths of the state and national economies last spring.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index climbed to 52.4 during January, surpassing the 50 mark that denotes an optimistic view of the economy. The reading was 14 points higher than its 2020 nadir in April, but still almost 10 points below where it was in January 2020.

The confidence report comes as Massachusetts continues a halting and uneven economic recovery. The good news is that the state grew at a 7.9% annual rate in the fourth quarter, double the national pace. The sobering news is that the Massachusetts unemployment rate surged to 7.4% during December.

“Massachusetts companies continue to be optimistic about their own prospects, especially at a time when COVID-19 vaccines have arrived and the state appears to be making modest progress moderating the spread of the virus,” said Raymond Torto, professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Design and chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA).

“We are really looking at two economies — one dominated by finance, manufacturing, and technology that continues to grow, and a second made up of travel, tourism and other public-facing industries that are likely to struggle for some time to come.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index were all higher during January. Employers’ confidence in their own companies rose for a fourth consecutive month, increasing 1.6 points to 54.7. The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth also crossed into optimistic territory, gaining 1.9 points to 50.3. The U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally surged 8.7 points to 47.7.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, was up 3 points to 48.4. The Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, rose 3.1 points to 56.4, still 6.4 points below its reading a year earlier.

The Employment Index gained 3.1 points to 52.6, suggesting that cautious employers may be looking to expand payrolls as soon as pandemic-driven restrictions are eased. Many employers that have operated throughout the COVID-19 crisis as essential business have reported challenges with hiring skilled workers.

Confidence among manufacturing companies was virtually flat at 51.1. The manufacturing index has dropped 11 points during the past 12 months.

Medium-sized companies (53.2) were more bullish than large companies (52.3) or small companies (51.2). Companies in Eastern Mass. (53.0) have a brighter outlook than those in Western Mass. (51.4).

Edward Pendergast, managing director of Dunn Rush & Co. and a BEA member, said the fact that the outlook for conditions six months from now is a full eight points higher than the assessment of current conditions sends a strong signal about the potential for economic recovery. “The hope is that employer confidence in their own company prospects continues to strengthen and drives decisions to increase investment moving forward.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, noted that the economy remains fragile as officials continue to wrestle with the public-health crisis.

“Hundreds of thousands of our friends and neighbors in Massachusetts remain out of work because of the pandemic. Many have left the workforce altogether. And the number of small businesses operating in Massachusetts during November was 37% less than in January 2020,” Regan said. “The watchword for policymakers in Massachusetts remains caution. The Baker administration and the Massachusetts Legislature have a unique opportunity to maintain the kind of business conditions that will encourage economic recovery and stability in 2021.”

BOSTON — Confidence among Massachusetts businesses remained flat during the final month of 2020 as employers ended a tumultuous year with a cautious outlook.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index remained unchanged during December at 49.3. The reading was 12.9 points lower than in December 2019, but more than 10 points higher than its 2020 low point in April.

The result reflected solid gains in confidence among employers in the prospects for their own companies and in the Massachusetts economy. Those gains were offset by a dramatic 4.8-point drop in opinions about the national outlook.

The confidence report comes as the Massachusetts economy continues a methodical recovery amid the conflicting swirl of a COVID-19 vaccine rollout and a renewed surge of cases. The state jobless rate dropped 0.7 points to 6.7% during November as private-sector employers created 12,200 jobs. The Commonwealth lost 337,900 jobs between November 2019 and November 2020.

“Massachusetts companies are optimistic about their own prospects, which provides hope that the economy will rebound once the nation gains control of the pandemic,” said Raymond Torto, professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Design and chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors. “But we are, as always, left with the uncertainty of an economic situation that is being driven by a public-health crisis.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index were mixed during December. Employers’ confidence in their own companies rose 1.3 points to 53.1, remaining in optimistic territory but still 7.9 points lower than a year ago. The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth gained 1.1 points to 47.3, while the U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally fell to 39.0.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, was down 0.2 point to 45.4. The Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, rose 0.3 point to 53.3, still 8.3 points below its level of December 2019.

The Employment Index declined 1.6 points to 49.5, breaking a string of four consecutive monthly increases. Despite the COVID-driven economic downturn, many employers continue to report challenges with hiring skilled workers.

Confidence among manufacturing companies also weakened slightly, dropping 0.3 point to 51.0. The manufacturing index has dropped 10.4 points during the past 12 months.

Medium-sized companies (51.5) were more bullish than large companies (49.1) or small companies (47.2).

Alan Clayton-Matthews, professor in the School of Public Policy & Urban Affairs at Northeastern University and a BEA member, said unemployment in Massachusetts is projected to remain above pre-pandemic levels through 2022, with lower-wage workers in industries such as retail and hospitality bearing the brunt of the slowdown. Overall, however, he believes the economy will strengthen as long as COVID-19 vaccines become widely available by the summer.

“Massachusetts tax revenues in the current fiscal year could reach $30.2 billion, which would be significantly higher than what lawmakers are expecting. Revenues could climb 4.4% in fiscal 2022 to $31.5 billion,” said Clayton-Matthews, who is also a senior contributing editor at MassBenchmarks.

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said prospects for economic growth in 2021 improved significantly last week when the Massachusetts Legislature completed a protracted two-year session without raising broad-based business taxes.

“We strongly urge the Legislature to continue that cautious approach as thousands of companies hang by a thread trying to survive the pandemic,” Regan said. “Employers commend the Legislature for passing a $626 million economic stimulus bill and a $16.5 billion transportation bond measure that did not raise corporate minimum taxes.”

BOSTON — Confidence among Massachusetts businesses last month rose to its highest level since February, inching toward optimism as vaccines raised hopes for an end to the COVID-induced economic slowdown.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index gained 3.1 points to 49.3 during November, just shy of the level (50) that denotes an optimistic view of the business economy. Driving the increase was a surge of confidence among manufacturing companies and bullishness among all employers about prospects for the future.

The BCI is up from a low of 38.4 in April but still 11.3 points less than in November 2019.

The confidence report comes as the Massachusetts economy continues a methodical recovery amid the renewed surge of COVID-19 cases. The state jobless rate dropped 2.4 percentage points to 7.4% in October following a record 37.7% rebound in economic output during the third quarter.

“Massachusetts companies appear to believe that the new COVID-19 vaccines will ultimately stem the increase in new cases and restore stability to the economy,” said Raymond Torto, professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Design and chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors. “The fact that employers are significantly more confident about conditions six months from now than they are about current conditions is a strong indicator that they see better days ahead.”

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index all moved higher during November. Employers’ confidence in their own companies rose 2.5 points to 51.8, crossing into optimistic territory but still 7.1 points lower than a year ago. The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth gained 4.4 points to 47.3, while the U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally increased 3.6 points to 43.8.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, was up 1.6 points to 45.6. The Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, surged 4.6 points to 53.0, still 6.5 points below its level of November 2019.

The Employment Index continued its steady increase, rising 1.6 points to 51.1. Despite the COVID-driven economic downturn, many employers continue to report challenges with hiring skilled workers.

Manufacturing companies recorded the largest increase in confidence, up 5.8 points to 51.3. Many Massachusetts manufacturers have operated throughout the pandemic as essential businesses. Large companies (56.2) were more bullish than medium-sized companies (48.6) or small companies (45.3).

Sara Johnson, executive director, Global Economics at IHS Markit and vice chair of the BEA, sounded a note of caution about the ability of governments around the world to control the spread of COVID-19. She predicts that the U.S. economy will grow at 3.7% in the fourth quarter and then slow to average growth of 1.9% next year.

“The need to bolster struggling economies has swamped notions of austerity. Unfortunately, institutional and political constraints in Europe, the possibility of a divided government in the United States, and limitations on further budgetary expansion in the emerging world mean hopes for big fiscal stimulus remain uncertain,” Johnson said.

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, commended the Massachusetts Legislature for hammering out a state budget last week that avoids raising broad-based taxes on business. He also called upon state and local leaders to keep the economy open in light of the fact that the increase in new COVID-19 cases is not coming from workplaces.

“Addressing the COVID crisis by shutting down the economy again is not a solution,” he said. “Neither is imposing tax increases to resolve the state’s fiscal issues at the expense of business people trying to keep people employed.”

BOSTON — Massachusetts employers remained pessimistic during October amid conflicting signals from the economy and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index lost four-tenths of a point to 46.2 last month, up from a low of 38.4 in April but still 14.7 points lower than a year ago. The report was compiled prior to the Nov. 3 presidential election.

Overall business confidence was dampened by darkening views of both the state and national economies. The confidence reading for the Massachusetts economy has tumbled 24.9 points during the past 12 months.

The report comes a week after MassBenchmarks reported that the Massachusetts economy grew at a record 37.7% clip during the third quarter, regaining some of the ground it lost when the Commonwealth imposed a broad lockdown during the early months of the pandemic. But the specter of lockdowns also reappeared in October as the U.S. hit a daily global record with 100,000 new COVID-19 cases.

“Massachusetts companies in many sectors have continued to generate products and services through the ups and downs of the pandemic. But they realize that surging caseloads and the expiration of federal stimulus will slow the economy again as we move into the fourth quarter,” said Raymond Torto, professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Design and chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA).

One participant in the confidence survey noted that “there is a big divide between growth industries and industries such as travel and tourism, which continue to suffer.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Index were mixed during October. Employer confidence in their own companies rose slightly to 49.3, nearly 10 points lower than in October 2019. The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth lost 1.2 points to 42.9, while the U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally declined 2.4 points to 40.2.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, was essentially flat at 44.0. The Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, fell 1.8 points to 48.4.

The Employment Index increased 0.9 points to 49.5, just short of optimistic territory. Despite the COVID-driven economic downturn, many employers continue to report challenges with hiring skilled workers.

Small companies (46.6) were slightly more bullish than medium-sized companies (46.2) and large companies (45.8). Non-manufacturers (47.0) were more bullish than manufacturing companies (45.5).

Barry Bluestone, retired professor of Public Policy and Urban Affairs at Northeastern University, noted that the economy continues to be whipsawed by seemingly contradictory trends.

“More than 60,000 renter households in Massachusetts currently face the prospect of eviction, while, at the same time, the average price of a single-family home in Massachusetts surged 19.5% during September,” Bluestone said. “It mirrors what we see in the overall economy, where there is a clear disparity by industry in the consequences of the economic downturn.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said the ability of Massachusetts to moderate the spread of COVID without repeating the devastating spring lockdown is essential to maintaining positive economic momentum.

“Hundreds of thousands of our friends and neighbors remain out of work, staring at bleak prospects during what is shaping up to be a long winter,” he noted, adding that the employers who make up AIM’s reopening task force, many of whom have operated as essential businesses throughout the pandemic, “continue to work closely with the Baker administration to ensure that the Commonwealth is able to balance public health and safety with economic survival.”

BOSTON — Business confidence in Massachusetts was essentially flat during September as employers remained pessimistic about an economy that continues to struggle under the weight of the seven-month-old COVID-19 pandemic.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index rose three-tenths of a point to 46.6 last month, up from a low of 38.4 in April but still 12.3 points lower than a year ago. The reading remains below the 50-point level that signals optimism.

Opinions about the state of the national economy strengthened, while confidence in the Massachusetts economy declined. Employers feel more bullish about the future than about present conditions.

The stable confidence reading came during a month in which the Massachusetts unemployment rate fell from a highest-in-the-nation 16.2% to 11.3%. It was also a month that saw the number of newly reported COVID-19 cases in the Commonwealth begin to accelerate.

“Employer comments suggest a both uncertainty about the presidential election and frustration about the persistent disruption of the COVID pandemic,” said Raymond Torto, professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Design and chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA). “Confidence among employers varies widely, depending upon the degree to which the economic downturn is affecting particular industries.”

One participant in the confidence survey commented that “conditions are quite uneven — dire for many, marginally satisfactory for some, and extremely strong for a few.”

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index were mixed during September. Employers’ confidence in their own companies fell slightly to 48.7, 9.5 points lower than in September 2019.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth lost 2.0 points to 44.1, while the U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally rose 4.2 points to 42.6. The state confidence reading has dropped 4.7 points during the past two months and now sits 19.2 points below its reading of September 2019.

The gap between attitudes toward Massachusetts and the nation shrank from 12 points in July — the largest in a decade — to 1.5 points last month. Massachusetts lost 403,200 jobs between August 2019 and August 2020.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, lost a point to 43.9. The Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, rose 1.5 points to 49.2, just shy of optimistic territory. The Employment Index increased slightly — 0.7 points to 48.6 — while the Sales Index, a leading indicator, rose 0.2 points to 45.0.

Large companies (49.7) were more optimistic than small companies (47.4) or medium-sized companies (43.9). Non-manufacturers (48.8) were more bullish than manufacturing companies (46.8).

“The confidence index continues to show a clear disparity by industry and by company size in the consequences of the economic downturn,” said Paul Bolger, president of Massachusetts Capital Resource Co. “At the same time, it is a positive sign that the Future Index is higher than the Current Index. That means employers looking beyond the current uncertainty anticipate improvement six months down the road.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said the continued economic uncertainty facing employers underscores the importance of decisions by the Massachusetts Legislature to maintain a competitive business climate. He cited a recent vote to table two bills that would have presumed that employees who contract COVID-19 did so while on the job and could thus seek workers’ compensation benefits.

“The decision by the Legislature was good news for employers already facing huge potential increases in unemployment-insurance taxes,” Regan said. “Expanded workers’ compensation eligibility is inconsistent with the public-health science because workers could just as well contract COVID-19 from family, friends, or a trip to the beach as from the workplace.”

BOSTON — Confidence among Massachusetts employers rose slightly during August amid continued uncertainty around the COVID-19 pandemic and its long-term effect on the state and national economies.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index rose a half-point to 46.3, resuming an uneven climb from its 2020 low of 38.4 at the height of the pandemic in April.

The reading was 12.4 points lower than in August 2019 and continued to indicate a predominantly pessimistic outlook among businesses throughout the Commonwealth.

The Index has moved in a volatile pattern since suffering the largest one-time decline in its history during March. Employer sentiment has been constrained by a 16.1% Massachusetts unemployment rate that is the highest in the nation, along with persistent weakness in key economic sectors such as healthcare and education.

“The good news is that employers are showing increased confidence in the prospects of their own companies. The sobering news is that recent announcements of major layoffs by healthcare, higher-education, and hospitality organizations in Massachusetts leave little doubt about the challenges of getting the state economy back on track,” said Raymond Torto, professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Design and chair of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA).

One employer who participated in the survey noted that “the pandemic has shortened the time horizon for evaluating business prospects. The environment changes so quickly that it’s hard to project conditions six months out.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index were mostly higher during August. Employers’ confidence in their own companies rose 1.4 points to 49.0, one point shy of an optimistic reading but still 9.2 points lower than in August 2019.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth lost 2.7 points to 46.1 as rising COVID-19 cases in early August prompted a pause in a planned four-phase economic reopening. The Massachusetts Index remains 17.8 points lower than a year ago.

The state’s payroll employment in July was 12.6% below its February 2020 level — the third-worst performance after Hawaii (down 16.5%) and New York (down 14.2%).

The U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally ended the month at 38.4, a 1.2-point gain for the month and a 16.8-point loss for the year. The gap between attitudes toward Massachusetts and the nation shrank from 12 points in July — the largest in a decade — to eight points last month.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, rose 2.9 points to 44.9, while the Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, dropped 1.9 points to 47.7. The Employment Index increased slightly, 0.2 points to 47.9, while the Sales Index, a leading indicator, rose 2.2 points to 44.8.

Large companies (47.8) were more optimistic than medium-sized companies (46.1) or small companies (45.0). Also driving confidence levels was the degree to which different industries have been able to reopen under the Massachusetts plan. Manufacturing companies (46.8), many of which have operated throughout the pandemic as essential businesses, remained more confident than non-manufacturers (45.9). And companies in manufacturing-heavy Western Mass. (48.9) were more upbeat than those in Eastern Mass. (44.2).

“There is a clear disparity by industry in the effects of the economic downturn,” said Michael Tyler, chief investment officer at Eastern Bank Wealth Management and a BEA member. “Recent layoff announcements by UMass Amherst, Cape Cod Healthcare, MGM, and several tourist destinations in the Berkshires draw a clear map of which types of organizations are being most immediately affected.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said the end of August brought encouraging public-health news as the positive COVID-19 test rate in Massachusetts fell below 1%.

“We have said all along that resolving our economic issues and putting people back to work depends upon the ability of the medical community and the government to manage the public-health issue,” Regan said. “Several AIM-member pharmaceutical companies are among those engaged in an extraordinary race to develop COVID-19 treatments and vaccines. The clarity brought about by those advances will eventually be the medicine that also heals the state and national economies.”

BOSTON — Confidence among Massachusetts employers weakened during July after two months of gains as the COVID-19 pandemic shrank the U.S. economy at a 33% annual clip during the second quarter.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index fell 3.2 points to 45.8, indicating a predominantly pessimistic outlook among businesses throughout the Commonwealth. Confidence was 16.2 points less than in July 2019.

The decrease, which came four months after the index suffered the largest one-time decline in its history, reflected concern among employers that surging COVID-19 cases in other parts of the country could eventually spell a prolonged and uneven national economic recovery.

Employers, in fact, showed significantly more confidence in the prospects of the Massachusetts economy than the national one, as the Massachusetts Index portion of the BCI rose 2 points in July while the National Index tumbled 6.5 points.

“Businesses continue to face uncertainty around both the public-health crisis and the economic crisis brought about by shutdowns and stay-at-home orders,” said Raymond Torto, professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Design and Chair of the Board of Economic Advisors (BEA). “The uncertainty will only intensify as cities and towns debate what to do about opening schools in September.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index were mostly lower during July. Employers’ confidence in their own companies fell 4 points to 47.6 after moving into optimistic territory the previous month for the first time since the COVID-19 shutdown.

The gain in the Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth brought it to 48.8, 19.4 points lower than a year ago. The U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally ended the month at 37.2, losing 25.4 points during the past 12 months.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, slid 4.3 points to 42.0. The Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, dropped 2.2 points to 49.6. The Employment Index declined slightly — 0.5 points to 47.7 — while the Sales Index, a leading indicator, declined 9.1 points to 42.6 points.

Manufacturing companies (46.7) were more confident than non-manufacturers (44.8). Medium-sized companies (46.9) were more optimistic than small companies (45.9) or large companies (44.1). Companies in Western Mass. (46.3) were more upbeat than those in Eastern Mass. (45.3).

Katherine Kiel, professor of Economics at the College of the Holy Cross and a BEA member, said employers continue to face headwinds in a Massachusetts economy that declined at a staggering 43.8% annual rate during the second quarter.

“The pandemic affected Massachusetts and other northeastern states early and severely during the second quarter, so it’s not surprising that Massachusetts now has the highest unemployment rate in the nation at 17.4%,” Kiel said. “September will mark a critical juncture in the recovery as we see how many students return to college campuses and how schools handle the start of classes.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said a key factor for Massachusetts employers moving forward will be the willingness of the federal government to provide financial support to the Commonwealth’s struggling unemployment-insurance system.

Projections from the most recent Unemployment Trust Fund Outlook Report estimate the fund will run a $6.6 billion deficit over the next several years. Employer contributions are due to increase from $1.6 billion this year to $2.2 billion in 2021.

“AIM strongly supports measures that will stabilize the unemployment-insurance system and moderate potential unemployment-tax increases for employers already struggling to keep their doors open,” Regan said.

BOSTON — Business confidence continued to rebound during June as Massachusetts methodically reopened its economy and COVID-19 cases surged elsewhere in the country.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index rose 6.9 points to 49.0, just a point shy of the level that denotes an optimistic outlook among employers.

The increase, which came three months after the index suffered the largest one-time decline in its history, reflected the relatively smooth rollout of the state’s four-step reopening plan and progress in containing the COVID-19 pandemic.

Confidence was closely linked to where a company was on the reopening schedule. Manufacturing companies, many of which have operated throughout the pandemic as essential businesses or were among the first companies to reopen, were more confident than retail companies and restaurants that had to wait until late June to welcome back customers.

“Companies certainly want to reopen as soon as possible and hire back some of the 1 million Massachusetts residents who lost their jobs during the pandemic. At the same time, the flareup of COVID-19 cases in states that opened aggressively seems to underscore the value of moderation,” said Raymond Torto, professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Design and chair of AIM’s Board of Economic Advisors (BEA).

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index were uniformly higher during June. Employers’ confidence in their own companies rose 5.9 points to 51.6, moving into optimistic territory for the first time since the COVID-19 shutdown.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth increased 9.4 points to 46.8, leaving it 14.4 points lower than in June 2019. The U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally gained 7.7 points to 43.7, a drop of 14.3 points during the year.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, surged 10.2 points to 46.3. The Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, rose 3.6 points to 51.8. The Employment Index increased 1.8 points in May, while the Sales Index, a leading indicator, gained 11.4 points to 51.7.

Manufacturing companies (49.4) were slightly more confident than non-manufacturers (47.8). Small companies (50.1) were more optimistic than medium-sized companies (49.2) or large companies (46.3). Companies in Eastern Mass. (49.4) were more optimistic than those in Western Mass. (48.5).

Michael Goodman, professor of Public Policy at UMass Dartmouth and a BEA member, said the Massachusetts job picture brightened slightly during the past month as employers began to resume business operations, but that the state economy continues to face significant challenges and uncertainty.

“In addition to its massive disruption to our daily social and economic life, the pandemic presents a significant threat to what are typically two of the Commonwealth’s most stable counter-cyclical employers — healthcare and higher education,” Goodman said. “This will make it more difficult to recover quickly this time, even if we manage to avoid a projected second wave of the COVID-19 virus later this year.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said employers hope Massachusetts can continue to reopen its economy without the surge in COVID-19 cases being seen in states like Texas and Florida.

“Essential companies and early-stage reopening companies continue to operate in a safe and efficient manner,” he noted. “The manufacturing sector in particular has adapted to new safety regulations in a way that should allow business to remain open and put people back to work.”

BOSTON — The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index gained 3.7 points to 42.1 two months after suffering the largest one-time decline in its history. The increase left the Index 15 points lower than in May 2019 and well below the 50-point mark denoting an optimistic outlook on the economy.

The rise in confidence came as Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker announced a four-phase process for reopening the state economy under strict workplace-safety guidelines. Employers hope a timely return to business will allow them to rehire some of the 1.2 million Massachusetts residents who have filed for unemployment since the onset of the pandemic.

“Employers are encouraged that Massachusetts has been able to moderate the number of new COVID-19 cases. We have said all along that the current economic crisis is being driven by the public-health crisis, and that’s what we see here,” said Raymond Torto, professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Design and chair of the Board of Economic Advisors (BEA).

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index were uniformly higher during May. Employers’ confidence in their own companies rose 3.9 points to 45.7. The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth increased 2.9 points to 37.4, leaving it 23.5 points lower than in May 2019. The U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally gained 3.9 points to 36.0, a drop of 19.0 points during the year.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, was up 4.9 points to 36.1. The Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, rose 2.6 points to 48.2. The Employment Index increased 3.5 points in May, while the Sales Index, a leading indicator, gained 2.1 points to 40.3.

Manufacturing companies (42.4) were slightly more confident than non-manufacturers (41.5). Medium-sized companies (44.0) were more optimistic than both large companies (40.4) and small companies (41.3). Companies in Eastern Mass. (44.3) were more optimistic than those in Western Mass. (38.6).

Elliot Winer, chief economist at Winer Economic Consulting and a BEA member, said any uptick in employer sentiment is important at a time when the COVID-19 virus caused the Massachusetts economy to contract at an estimated 6.1% annual rate during the first quarter.

“The fact that the Future Index is 12 points higher than the Current Index suggests that some employers believe they will be able to resume acceptable business volume as long as the virus remains under control,” Winer said.

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said Baker’s deliberate reopening plan marks an encouraging first step to reopening the state economy in a safe and efficient manner.

“We realize that every employer in Massachusetts would love to hear that they can reopen immediately. But we also acknowledge that a phased reopening balances the need to restart the economy with the need to manage a public-health crisis that continues to claim many lives a day in Massachusetts,” Regan said. “Any decision by government to lift of the prohibition on non-essential businesses will be just the beginning for Massachusetts employers, who will in many cases need to reconfigure workplaces for social distancing and determine how to implement other safety measures, such as the wearing of protective equipment, continuing work-from-home policies, and ensuring the health of workers and customers.”

BOSTON — Confidence among Massachusetts employers continued to erode during April as the Commonwealth became a hotspot for COVID-19 and Gov. Charlie Baker extended the closing of non-essential businesses until mid-May.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index fell 1.8 points after suffering its largest monthly decline ever during March. The Index ended April at 38.4, nearly 22 points less than a year ago and five points above its all-time low set during the Great Recession in 2009.

The sustained confidence slide reflects the idling of significant portions of the economy as health officials work to stem to spread of the novel coronavirus. The economic fallout has been widespread — more than 893,000 people have filed for unemployment benefits in Massachusetts during the past six weeks.

“Confidence remains at a pessimistic level even as portions of the nation begin to announce plans to gradually re-open their economies. But a meaningful rebound in confidence will depend on a still-uncertain balance of public-health factors and economic ones,” said Raymond Torto, professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Design and chair of the Board of Economic Advisors (BEA).

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 140 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index were mostly lower during April. The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth fell 1.8 points to 34.5, leaving it 28.7 points lower than in April 2019. The U.S. Index measuring conditions nationally was essentially flat at 32.1, a drop of 26.2 points during the year.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, lost 5.4 points to 31.2. The Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, provided a lone bright spot as it rose 1.9 points to 45.6. The Employment Index was down 2.5 points in April and 11.5 points for the year. The Sales Index, a leading indicator, lost 5.3 points to 38.2.

Non-manufacturers (38.4) were slightly more confident than manufacturing companies (36.9). Medium-sized companies (39.4) were more optimistic than both large companies (34.4) or small companies (38.4). Companies in Western Mass.s (39.0) were more optimistic than those in the eastern part of the state (37.3).

Elmore Alexander, retired dean of the Ricciardi College of Business at Bridgewater State University, said the economic convulsion caused by COVID-19 has fallen heavily on healthcare, higher education, and other key drivers of growth in Massachusetts. “The COVID-19 outbreak has been particularly severe in Massachusetts as well, so the reopening of the economy may take longer than in other states and other countries. An important milestone will be whether college students return to campus in the fall.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said the business community has begun to work with Baker’s 17-member advisory committee to develop strategies to re-open the Massachusetts economy.

“Any decision by government to lift of the prohibition on non-essential businesses will be just the beginning for Massachusetts employers, who will in many cases need to reconfigure workplaces for social distancing and determine how to implement other safety measures such as the wearing of protective equipment, continuing work-from-home policies and ensuring the health of workers and customers,” Regan said.

In the meantime, he noted, the business community is urging state lawmakers to proceed cautiously while employers and state officials gauge the effect of more than $2 trillion in federal rescue money for business and employees.

BOSTON — The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index recorded the largest monthly drop in its history during March as the COVID-19 pandemic unraveled the global economy.

Confidence dropped 21.9 points to 40.2 on a 100-point scale, moving the reading into pessimistic territory (below 50.0) for the first time since October 2013. The largest monthly decline in confidence prior to last month took place in October 1998, when the Index dropped 9.6 points.

Business confidence in Massachusetts now stands 19.1 points below its level of March 2019 and just seven points higher than its nadir during the recession of 2009.

The confidence decline reflects the continued idling of vast swaths of the global economy as health officials work to stem to spread of the novel coronavirus. Members of the AIM Board of Economic Advisors (BEA) say the March results are not surprising at a time when experts believe the U.S. economy will contract by more than 5% in 2020.

“The unprecedented one-month erosion of business confidence represents the unique set of circumstances that have changed almost every aspect of life during the past month,” said Raymond Torto, professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Design and BEA chair. “Massachusetts companies are trying to map out their futures in the face of government orders to cease operations and the uncertainty of forces beyond the scope of traditional economic models.”

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index were all down. The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth fell 29.5 points to 36.3, leaving it 25.4 points lower than in February 2019. The U.S. Index lost 20 points to 31.9.

The Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, declined 18.1 points to 43.7, a year-over-year slide of 24.6 points. The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, lost 25.8 points to 36.6.

The Employment Index was down 12.2 points in March and 10.5 points for the year. The Employment Index had lagged the overall business-confidence reading for several years amid a persistent shortage of workers.

“The Baker administration deserves tremendous credit for managing through a pandemic crisis with no easy answers,” said John Regan, CEO of AIM. “State government has made good-faith and transparent efforts to limit the spread of COVID-19, secure appropriate equipment for frontline medical workers, and, with the help of federal programs and resources, establish financial backstops for companies and workers alike. It will be a great day when we can all get back to business as usual.”

BOSTON — Business confidence remained steady in Massachusetts during February in a survey taken mostly prior to the late-month market gyrations touched off by COVID-19.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) Business Confidence Index fell 0.2 points last month to 62.1. The reading was 3.9 points higher than a year ago and well within optimistic territory.

February confidence reflected weakening employer views about conditions six months out and about prospects for their own companies. Those indicators are likely to fall again in March as companies factor in the potential effect of COVID-19 on profitability, employee productivity, and travel policies.

“The underlying indicators of the U.S. and Massachusetts economies remain strong, but fallout from COVID-19 introduces a huge amount of uncertainty into the economic picture,” said Raymond Torto, professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Design and chair of AIM’s Board of Economic Advisors (BEA).

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 100 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative.

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index were mixed during February. The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the Commonwealth fell 0.4 points to 65.8, leaving it 5.0 points higher than in February 2019. The U.S. Index was virtually flat, rising 0.1 points to 60.9.

The Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, declined 1.0 point to 61.8, a year-over-year gain of 3.0 points. The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, gained 0.5 points to 62.4

The Employment Index was up 0.2 points in February and 2.9 points for the year. The Employment Index continues to lag the overall business-confidence reading amid a persistent shortage of workers that may become more pronounced as large numbers of Baby Boomers retire.

Non-manufacturers (62.8) were more confident than manufacturing companies (61.4). Large companies (66.3) were more optimistic than medium-sized (61.4) or small (56.3) companies. Companies in Eastern Mass. (63.4) were more optimistic than those in the west (59.9).

Edward Pendergast, managing director of Dunn Rush & Co. and a BEA member, noted that confidence among small businesses dropped from 63.0 in January to 56.3 in February, leaving the reading a full point lower than it was 12 months ago.

“Business formation and entrepreneurial activity remain strong in Massachusetts, yet owners of small companies are less optimistic about their prospects than they have been,” he said. “It will be an interesting measure to watch as the year progresses.”

AIM President and CEO John Regan, also a BEA member, said the Massachusetts economy has reached a turning point as lawmakers debate raising taxes to pay for transportation-infrastructure improvement.

The state House of Representatives last week passed a $600 million transportation-financing bill that would increase the gasoline tax and established a tiered minimum corporate tax.

“AIM believes that any transportation-financing source should have some nexus to transportation, and the change in corporate minimum tax lacks that nexus,” Regan said. “We support policies and responsible new investment to reduce congestion, grow capacity to deliver capital projects, lower carbon emissions in the transportation sector, and ensure accountability and transparency in transportation-investment spending.”