Starts and Stops

Total construction starts fell 2% nationally in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $797.3 billion, according to the latest report from Dodge Data & Analytics. Non-building construction starts posted a solid gain after rebounding from a weak January; however, residential and non-residential building starts declined, leading to a pullback in overall activity.

“With spring just around the corner, hope is building for a strong economic recovery fueled by the growing number of vaccinated Americans,” said Richard Branch, chief economist for Dodge Data & Analytics. “But the construction sector will be hard-pressed to take advantage of this resurgence as rapidly escalating materials prices and a supply overhang across many building sectors weighs on starts through the first half of the year.”

Non-building construction starts gained a robust 20% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $200.3 billion. The miscellaneous non-building sector (largely pipelines and site work) surged 76%, while environmental public works increased 26%, and highway and bridge starts moved 11% higher. By contrast, utility and gas plant starts lost 17% in February.

For the 12 months ending February 2021, total non-building starts were 13% lower than the 12 months ending February 2020. Highway and bridge starts were 4% higher on a 12-month rolling-sum basis, while environmental public works were up 1%. Miscellaneous non-building fell 26%, and utility and gas plant starts were down 37% for the 12 months ending February 2021.

The largest non-building projects to break ground in February were the $2.1 billion Line 3 Replacement Program, a 337-mile pipeline in Minnesota; the $1.2 billion Red River Water Supply Project in North Dakota, and the $950 million New England Clean Energy Connect Power Line in Maine.

Non-residential building starts fell 7% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $208.1 billion. Institutional starts dropped 8% during the month despite a strong pickup in healthcare. Warehouse starts fell back during the month following a robust January, offsetting gains in office and hotel starts, and dragging down the overall commercial sector by 8%.

For the 12 months ending February 2021, non-residential building starts dropped 28% compared to the 12 months ending February 2020. Commercial starts declined 30%, institutional starts were down 19%, and manufacturing starts slid 58% in the 12 months ending February 2021.

The largest non-residential building projects to break ground in February were Ohio State University’s $1.2 billion Wexner Inpatient Hospital Tower in Columbus; ApiJect Systems’ $785 million Gigafactory in Durham, N.C.; and Sterling EdgeCore’s $450 million data center in Sterling, Va.

Residential building starts slipped 7% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $388.9 billion. Both single-family and multi-family starts fell during the month, with each losing 7%.

For the 12 months ending February 2021, total residential starts were 4% higher than the 12 months ending February 2020. Single-family starts gained 12%, while multi-family starts were down 15% on a 12-month sum basis.

The largest multi-family structures to break ground in February were Bronx Point’s $349 million mixed-use development in the Bronx, N.Y.; the $215 million Broadway Block mixed-use building in Long Beach, Calif.; and the $200 million GoBroome mixed-use building in Manhattan, N.Y.

Regionally, February’s starts fell lower in the South Central and West regions but moved higher in the Midwest, Northeast, and South Atlantic Regions.

Earlier this month, Dodge Data & Analytics released its Dodge Momentum Index, which rose 7.1% in February. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for non-residential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for non-residential buildings by a full year. The institutional component of the Momentum Index jumped 26.3% during the month, while the commercial component was essentially flat.

February’s Momentum Index marked the highest levels in nearly three years as a result of a surge in large projects that entered planning. It remains to be seen if this level of activity, especially in the institutional sector, is sustainable given the tenuous economic recovery and rising material prices. Institutional planning projects in February were concentrated in large hospitals and labs, while commercial planning projects primarily included data centers, warehouses, and office projects. Compared to a year ago, the overall Momentum Index was up 9.2%; the commercial component was 15.2% higher, while the institutional component was down 3.3%.