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Why Tariffs Are Fueling Concern Among Large Retailers

By Contributor
Special Coverage Wealth Management

The Big Box Barometer

By Jeff Liguori

Walmart and Costco might be two of the most important businesses in the U.S. today. Costco, the bulk retailer, sells nearly $255 billion worth of products annually, ranging from patio furniture to olive oil to diamond rings. It is arguably the most diverse outlet in terms of product mix and customer base. Walmart, the largest retail chain, holds about 20% share of the U.S. food and beverage market, serving 240 million customers weekly, with stores located within 10 miles of 90% of the U.S. population.

In a recent Trusted & Liked Companies Survey of 14,000 consumers by the Caliber Group, Costco ranked second in quality of reputation, slightly behind Amazon, on a list of the 30 most trusted retailers in the U.S., while Walmart ranked 10th.

During Costco’s last quarterly earnings conference call, CFO Gary Millerchap discussed the company’s plan to deal with tariffs and the potential effect on their customers. Predicting the impact is a challenge, he said, because of the “uncertainty around the timing and scope” of the tariffs. As part of its plan, Costco has been pulling inventory forward — in other words, adding excess inventory in anticipation of prices rising in the future.

The tariffs being levied on exporting countries by the Trump administration are a headwind for many businesses and routinely discussed by CEOs and CFOs of major companies. A tariff is a tax on a foreign country, a tactic to help generate greater tax revenue for the U.S. from countries where there is either a trade imbalance, an adversarial relationship, or — in the case of our neighboring states, Canada and Mexico — to curb illegal drug trafficking.

Most economists agree that tariffs will ultimately result in higher prices for the consumer. Walmart issued a cautious outlook on its last conference call. John Rainey, the CFO, told analysts there are too many uncertainties related to consumer behavior and global economic and geopolitical conditions to give clear guidance to analysts — a nice way of saying “we have no idea what the tariffs might mean for the global economy.” The stock price fell nearly 11% following the earnings report.

“When companies like Walmart and Costco import, the tariff gets passed on to them, which gets passed on to the consumer. The Trump strategy is tricky at a time when inflation remains stubborn.”

When companies like Walmart and Costco import, the tariff gets passed on to them, which gets passed on to the consumer. The Trump strategy is tricky at a time when inflation remains stubborn. At the last meeting of the Federal Reserve in January, the Federal Open Market Committee left interest rates unchanged, pausing the rate-cutting cycle that started last September because inflation remains elevated. Continuing to cut rates would put additional upward pressure on prices. Tariffs may exacerbate that dynamic further.

The Tax Policy Center, an independent think tank, estimates that tariffs would reduce imports by $9 trillion over 10 years. Currently, imports are at the highest level in history; the U.S. imported about $4.1 trillion in goods in 2024, up 20% from 2021, and have increased by 6% annually, on average. A decrease of $9 trillion, spread over a decade, would be about a 25% decrease in imports per year. Presumably, goods produced domestically would replace those that are imported, but such a transition doesn’t occur overnight.

So, what does this mean for the U.S. economy? Increasing inventories by retailers, as a measure to protect against higher prices related to tariffs, might be coming at the exact wrong time. From Costco’s conference call, the CFO noted that recent shopping habits have trended more toward lower-priced groceries, and the company saw a shift to more food eaten in the home. The CEO, Ron Vachris, suggested that customers have been making more pragmatic choices in recent months.

Jeff Liguori

Jeff Liguori

“Increasing inventories by retailers, as a measure to protect against higher prices related to tariffs, might be coming at the exact wrong time.”

Such behavior is consistent with recent consumer surveys, which illustrate more cautious spending by individuals and families. Higher inventories, or supply, and weaker demand will soften inflation without any help from the Fed’s monetary policy.

Prices matter. The most Googled economic term in 2024 was ‘inflation.’ Costco and Walmart have the wherewithal to manage through uncertainty, but we, as consumers, may not. What we spend accounts for 70% of GDP; what we import accounts for 14%. It is not difficult to see how the U.S. economy could tip into recession if those two categories contract.

At a recent meeting of the Economic Club of Chicago, Doug McMillon, the CEO of Walmart, told an audience he expects the situation to worsen with increased price pressure ahead amid shoppers already experiencing “frustration and pain.”

Time will tell if that pain will be worth it for the long-term financial well-being of our country.

 

Jeff Liguori is managing partner and chief investment officer of Napatree Capital, with offices in Longmeadow and Westerly, R.I.

Economy Shows Progress, but Workforce Remains a Challenge

By
Economic Outlook

Reasons for Optimism — and Concern

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Chris Geehern says there’s been a slight but significant uptick in the Business Confidence Index issued each month by Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM).

That increase is one of the many reasons why he and others are … wait for it … cautiously optimistic as the calendar turns to 2023. That phrase has been put to heavy use in recent years and recent months, especially with so much uncertainty regarding the economy due to forces ranging from COVID to inflation to an ongoing workforce crisis.

“If the workforce grows 1.5% and the number of jobs grows by 21% or 22%, as they’re projecting, we have a problem — a big problem.”

Chris Geehern

Chris Geehern

But as the state and region put 2022 in the rear view and focus on a year with even more uncertainty, there are some reasons for optimism, said Geehern, executive vice president of AIM, and that is reflected in the numbers he’s seeing.

“Our members seem pretty confident about the prospects for their own companies,” he said. “And they are reasonably confident about the state and national economies. There are certainly lingering concerns about interest rates and about whether there will be a soft landing or not. But, by and large, we’re finding that Massachusetts companies are resilient, and they seem to be navigating this kind of economic cycle pretty well right now.”

Elaborating, he said unemployment remains comparatively low, and the state’s economy grew in the third quarter, albeit slowly, after two quarters of negative growth — another positive sign. “So, by and large, employers don’t seem to be deeply concerned by the short-term economic cycle.”

Bob Nakosteen, a semi-retired Economics professor at UMass Amherst, agreed. He told BusinessWest that, in addition to growing optimism, inflation is starting to cool, a sign that the Fed’s decision to aggressively raise interest rates may — that’s may — be working. It could also be a harbinger of lower rate hikes in the future, which would certainly help business owners and consumers alike.

“And I think inflation is already a lot lower than is being reported,” said Nakosteen. “The month-to-month figures are pretty low … I think inflation is going to drop, maybe not dramatically, but considerably in the next few reporting periods.”

Elaborating, he said ‘dramatically’ would be a drop to the 2% target set by the Fed (at its height, inflation was closer to 8%), while ‘considerably’ would be to the 3% to 4% range, which is what he expects.

“And if that’s the case, then the Fed is going to ease off on interest rates,” he said, adding that such actions should bolster the stock market and the economy as a whole as the dramatic increases in the cost of borrowing start to ease.

Meanwhile, there are other signs that the picture is improving and the odds for recession in 2023 are moving lower, said Nakosteen, adding that the labor market remains quite strong, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s projections for GDP in the fourth quarter are for 3.2% growth — this on top of what has been a strong Christmas season for retailers.

“The signals just aren’t there for a serious recession — or even for a recession at all.”

Bob Nakosteen

Bob Nakosteen

“I think that economic growth is going to slow down, and if we do get into a recession, it will be a mild one,” he said, adding quickly that his track record with projections is decent but not spectacular. “What continues to amaze me is the strength of the labor market; unemployment is still at or just over 3% both nationally and in this state, and in Western Mass. as well. “The signals just aren’t there for a serious recession — or even for a recession at all.”

But while there is cause for some optimism, there are many concerns as well, especially when it comes to the workforce.

Indeed, in 2022, it became obvious to most in business that the problems seen in 2021 when it came to companies being able to fill positions with qualified help were certainly not temporary in nature. They persisted into 2022, and in some cases were exacerbated.

Now, there is what Geehern, summing up the thoughts of AIM’s members, called “deep concern” about what has become a workforce crisis in this state.

“‘I can’t find the people I need to make my business grow’ has become part of the vernacular in this state,” he said, noting that, as part of the Business Confidence Index survey, AIM asks an open-ended question, along the lines of ‘what are you worried about?’

And, increasingly, owners of businesses large and small are worried about workforce.

“I would say that 75% to 80% of the responses to that question every month have to do with talent acquisition, talent retention, and the availability of workers,” he said. “And the concern is that this isn’t the function of an economic cycle; it’s really a deep, structural inflection point for the Massachusetts economy.”

As he explained why, Geehern cited some rather alarming statistics from the Massachusetts Department of Economic Research, which projects that the number of jobs in Massachusetts will grow by 22% between now and 2030. Meanwhile, projections from various economists indicate that the state’s workforce will grow 1.5% by 2030.

“If the workforce grows 1.5% and the number of jobs grows by 21% or 22%, as they’re projecting, we have a problem — a big problem,” Geehern said. “This was going on anyway — it’s partially a function of demographics — but it’s been exacerbated by the newfound independence that remote work has given to employees.”

Given this unsettling math, Geerhern said there are things the state and individual employers must do to make themselves more attractive — not just to businesses, but to workers on all levels.

“Traditionally, we’ve focused on what creates the environment where businesses can start and grow in Massachusetts, and we’re still committed to that,” he said. “But at the same time, we also recognize that you have to create a quality of life that makes people — workers — want to live here in Massachusetts. And that means looking at the cost of living.

“Massachusetts ranks number one in terms of childcare costs, we have the second-highest housing costs, and the fourth-worst traffic congestion — I don’t know how they measure that, but they do,” he went on. “What we’re looking at is a significant outmigration of people from Massachusetts to other areas of the country; a Massachusetts Taxpayers Association report showed that, over the past three decades, there’s been an outmigration of 750,000 people from Massachusetts, and that trend has actually accelerated post-pandemic.”

In some cases, people are leaving the state for lower-cost areas, but keeping their jobs here, a byproduct of the remote-work phenomenon. Moving forward, Geehern said in conclusion, the state has to make itself an attractive place to do business and to live and work — because failure to do so will worsen an already-difficult situation and made it even harder for business owners to sleep at night.

 

 

Healthcare Costs a Continuing Concern

By
Opinion

Opinion

By Katie Holahan

Healthcare spending in Massachusetts grew less than a key state benchmark and less than the national average during 2017, but employers and workers are not yet seeing the benefits.

The annual Healthcare Cost Trends Report issued this month by the state Health Policy Commission (HPC) indicates that total per-capita healthcare expenditures in Massachusetts rose 1.6% during 2016, significantly less than the 3.6% benchmark set by the commission. The Massachusetts growth rate also fell below the national rate — 3.1% — for the eighth consecutive year.

But the health-insurance premiums paid by Massachusetts employers and employees increased 5.8% in 2017, leaving the average total premium for employer-based coverage among the highest in the country at $21,000 per year for a family plan and $7,000 for a single employee. These figures do not include out-of-pocket spending such as co-payments and deductible spending, which grew 5.9% in 2017 for commercially insured enrollees.

Premiums for smaller employers increased 6.9% and are now the second-highest in the country, according to the HPC. Fifty-seven percent of employees in small businesses are enrolled in high-deductible health plans.

Part of the reason employers are not seeing more benefit from moderating health spending may be the fact that commercial insurers in Massachusetts pay higher prices to providers than Medicare pays for the same services. For hospital inpatient care, average prices among the three largest Massachusetts insurers were 57% higher than Medicare prices for similar patients. Commercial insurers also paid much more for typical outpatient services, including brain MRIs, emergency-department visits, and physician office visits.

Premiums for smaller employers increased 6.9% and are now the second-highest in the country, according to the HPC. Fifty-seven percent of employees in small businesses are enrolled in high-deductible health plans.

The HPC attributed much of the overall increase health-care expenditures to spending on prescription drugs (4.1%) and hospital outpatient services (4.9%). The commission also found that medical bills can vary as much as 30% from one hospital or medical group to another with no measurable different in quality of care.

The HPC makes 11 policy recommendations to continue health spending moderation. Among the highlights:

• The Commonwealth should focus on reducing unnecessary utilization and increasing the provision of coordinated care in high-value, low-cost settings.

• Policymakers should advance specific, data-driven interventions to address the pressing issue of continued provider price variation in the coming year.

• The Commonwealth should continue to promote the increased adoption of alternative payment methods.

• The Commonwealth should authorize the Executive Office of Health and Human Services to establish a process that allows for a rigorous review of certain high-cost drugs, increasing the ability of MassHealth to negotiate directly with drug manufacturers for additional supplemental rebates and outcomes-based contracts, and increasing public transparency and public oversight for pharmaceutical manufacturers, medical-device companies, and pharmacy benefit managers.

Katie Holahan is vice president of Government Affairs for Associated Industries of Massachusetts.